Could Vice President Joe Biden become the Democrats’ nominee for president in 2016? Much of the mainstream media is not sure whether to take this idea seriously. A front-page article in the Washington Times this week never even mentioned Biden in its detailed review of Democratic options in the event that Hillary Clinton’s campaign continues to stumble – a prospect that seems increasingly likely as damaging new details about her “pay-to-play” shenanigans while serving as U.S. Secretary of State emerge.
It’s hard to disguise the deep slide in Clinton’s favorability ratings. Currently, she’s at 46 percent, a 14-year low, according to a recent poll. And perhaps even more striking, three GOP candidates for president – Scott Walker, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul – are now in a statistical dead heat with Clinton, who once enjoyed a strong double-digit lead over the entire Republican field. That Biden would be overlooked as a possible contender in 2016 seems odd on its face. VPs of two-term presidents are typically frontrunners for their party’s nomination, even if, as history has shown, they rarely succeed.
There are obvious concerns about Biden’s age (at 73, he’d be the oldest president ever, if elected), his overly friendly “groping” of women during photo ops, and his penchant for outrageous verbal gaffes. But until now, his defenders, including the president, have managed to pass these “quirks” off as “Joe being Joe,” without substantial fallout. Ultimately, it’s on matters of substance that Biden’s prospects are best measured – and here the long-time Delaware Democrat might well prove formidable – especially when compared to Clinton. Biden is one of the nation’s leading experts on foreign and defense policy.
Many Republicans were hoping to capitalize on a string of national security crises since Obama’s re-election and Clinton’s own dismal record of non-accomplishment as well as the damage to her credibility due to the Benghazi affair. But even if Biden’s record under Obama is also subject to criticism, his past chairmanship of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and diplomatic dealings with global heads of state leave no doubt as to his basic qualifications for the presidency – which clearly linger in the case of Clinton.
Among front-running Republicans, only Marco Rubio can claim serious national security experience. But at age 45, he’s a relative neophyte, and could be hard-pressed to trump Biden in a head-to-head debate. And that’s just foreign policy. Biden, unlike Clinton, also has a strong track record of forging bipartisan compromises — something sorely lacking in today’s Congress, of course, and increasingly demanded by moderate mainstream “swing” voters And he is also genuinely popular with members of both parties. It’s hard to imagine a campaign to demonize Biden that would have the same resonance as the long-standing conservative assault on Clinton. In fact, it could well backfire.
On the issues, Biden is subject to the same criticism as Clinton: that his dyed-in-the-wool liberalism is out of step with the nation. But Democrats appear ready to follow the Obama playbook of 2008 and 2012 – energize their core constituencies and get more of their base voters to the polls than the GOP. If so, Biden — who pushed Obama into supporting gay marriage and who is considerably less hawkish on foreign policy (important to the party’s disenchanted youth) – may be better positioned than Clinton to rally the troops for battle.
Biden’s popularity with the general electorate is also rebounding, a sign that he may be able to woo independents, too. His net favorability rating has begun climbing lately. And Biden is also viewed positively by two-thirds of Democrats – lower than Clinton but twice the level of Elizabeth Warren, for example. Other presumed Democratic candidates for 2016 – former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and independent Vermont senator Bernie Sanders — barely have any name recognition at all. What would it take to put Biden in play? An extraordinary sense of crisis within Democratic ranks, probably, much like the one that greeted the party in 2008 when supporters of Hillary and Obama angrily squared off and today’s awkward succession deal was forged. But even a continued surge in the polls by Sanders — or the expected entry of former Virginia senator James Webb into the race — could push matters to a head. Biden, it seems clear, would step into the breach in a heartbeat, if asked. And the president, who has steadfastly refused to endorse Clinton, has all but suggested an opening to Biden down the road.
Officially, Biden says that he is waiting until the end of the summer to make a formal decision. But alone among the top Democratic contenders, including Clinton, Biden since January has made trips to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – the initial three states in the battle for the nomination. Ostensibly, it was to promote the president’s agenda, but since Obama is no longer running for office, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that Biden was showing the flag – not Obama’s, but his own.