You probably saw the recent Washington Post piece about how Sen. [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore] has assembled “a team of statisticians and behavioral psychologists who subscribe to the burgeoning practice of ‘psychographic targeting’ built their own version of a Myers-Briggs personality test.”
Depending on how you look at it, this is either disturbingly Orwellian, or exactly the kind of stuff a Republican will have to master in order to beat Hillary Clinton next November.
But Cruz’s use of sophisticated psychological techniques aren’t merely reserved for targeting voters at the micro level. Cruz is also employing some pretty interesting macro strategies—in an attempt to outmaneuver Donald Trump.
First, of course, to borrow a Talladega Night’s analogy, he has been “drafting” for much of the race, laying low and allowing Trump to face the stiff headwinds. When the time is right (say, right now), Cruz will try to slingshot ahead (as he has in Iowa).
A related phenomenon benefiting Cruz is the Overton Window. Simply put, Trump has expanded the window in such a way that, in comparison to Trump, Cruz seems both moderate and experienced.
It would be easy to think that this is merely luck, but the truth is that Cruz has worked very hard to bide his time and situation himself to capitalize from Trump’s candidacy. The most interesting strategy that I have seen Cruz employ (first against [crscore]Rand Paul[/crscore], and now against Trump) is Hoteling’s model of spacial competition. The strategy is to “hug” Trump—to get as physically close to him as possible, while always staying just one notch on the sane side of him (If you’ve ever wondered why Walgreens frequently chooses to open a new store right next to a CVS, this theory explains it).
My guess is still that Cruz wins Iowa, but fails to win the nomination. That’s my theory, and I’m sticking to it. But make no mistake, Ted Cruz is an incredibly smart and utterly ambitious pol, and he is strategically tapping into some very sophisticated psychological techniques in order to run on hell of a smart race. I’m not sure whether to be scared or impressed.
Note: The author’s wife previously advised Ted Cruz’s campaign for U.S. Senate.
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