A new chart posted by The Washington Post shows in stark terms how severely Hillary Clinton is collapsing in the polls. It’s not simply comparable to 2008. It’s much, much worse.
While Clinton ultimately lost the nomination narrowly to Barack Obama in 2008, she actually held a national lead of about 20 points all the way up to the Iowa caucuses. This time around, her national lead is disintegrating with the caucuses still almost three weeks away.
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) January 14, 2016
Clinton’s situation in New Hampshire is also worse than in 2008. In 2008, she held a consistent lead in polls until immediately before the primary vote (and ultimately won the state). In 2016, Clinton has been trailing for over a month, with little improvement. (RELATED: Sanders Leads Hillary Among New Hampshire Women)
The only sign of hope is in Iowa, where Clinton is still holding a small lead of under five points. In 2008, she was already trailing at this point in the race. However, her lead in Iowa is dropping far faster than it ever did in 2008, falling over ten points in the past week.
And if things are looking dicey for Clinton now, she has reason to be even more fearful. As the Post notes, Clinton’s lead suffered an instant 12-point drop in 2008 as well, but only after she suffered a defeat to Obama in Iowa. If a similar defeat and subsequent drop happens this time around, her campaign could be utterly destroyed.
On the other hand, Clinton has some reasons for optimism. In 2008, she decisively lost black voters to Obama, but in this cycle it is Sanders who is weak with non-whites, and who will therefore likely suffer as the campaign moves out of heavily-white Iowa and New Hampshire.
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