Maybe [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore] is too much for the Republican establishment after all.
Even though the Texas senator has the only mathematical chance of overtaking Donald Trump before the convention and is the best positioned to win a contested convention, GOP insiders still haven’t come to terms with a Cruz nomination.
So with realistic expectations thrown to the wind, there’s now serious talk of hoisting the ultimate establishment fantasy candidate at the convention — [crscore]Paul Ryan[/crscore]. Despite the pesky fact that the House Speaker didn’t run for president in 2016, some prominent folk think he’s a solid choice for the nomination.
Karl Rove alluded to the possibility last week in a Fox News interview where he said the party should go with a “fresh face” instead of the current crop of candidates. It’s unlikely Rove was referring to Mitt Romney’s well-worn brand or any other Republican leader.
Former House Speaker John Boehner has long made it known he prefers the present speaker as his choice for the nomination. There’s now a rumor that the powerful Koch brothers are secretly backing Ryan in the chance of a brokered convention and that Charles Koch believes his pick would be a “shoo-in.”
Contrary to the wishes of these folks and others who are very excited about Ryan throwing his hat in the ring, it is highly unlikely he’d be able to wrangle the nomination at the convention, much less be a shoo-in.
Cruz is currently dominating the delegate primary and thus earning the loyalty of the folks who go to the convention. Trump is trying to catch up with the backroom side of the campaign, but is still expected to go in with the plurality of the delegates, even if he is short of the magic 1,237 number.
On top of those two facts, [crscore]Marco Rubio[/crscore] and John Kasich are planning on hold on to their delegates until the bitter end.
So where is Ryan going to get his delegates? He has to offer a helluva deal to one of the candidates to get any in the first place, and then hope the rest of the delegate field sees Ryan as the Republican Messiah sent down by Abraham Lincoln to save the Grand Old Party.
Rubio may encourage his delegates to go for Ryan if he sees it as a good move for his political future. Kasich may pledge his delegates to be Ryan’s running mate.
But the two men actually competing to win the nomination through the normal process are not likely to budge.
With both the Trump and Cruz camps warning of the party establishment attempting to steal the nomination away from the voters and both candidates holding the vast majority of delegates, it’s doubtful any “Draft Ryan” plan will go well with these two camps.
Ryan must win over the respective supporters of Trump and Cruz to become the Republican nominee.
Unfortunately for the House Speaker, he’s the complete opposite of both candidates.
It’s obvious that Ryan is the anti-Trump by every conceivable measure. Trump is pushing an immigration restrictionist line, supports trade protectionism, vows to protect entitlement programs and delivers a visceral message soaked in red meat. Ryan supports mass immigration, unrestricted free trade, entitlement cuts and fills his rhetoric with “aspirational” platitudes.
Cruz, at least where he stands in the 2016 primary, has more in common with Trump than he does with Ryan. The senator says he’s the true immigration hardliner, criticizes trade agreements and speaks in dark tones about what future may lie ahead for America if he’s not elected.
The difference between him and The Donald is that he keeps his message within acceptable conservative discourse. Trump’s whole campaign is an exercise in upending conservative orthodoxy.
The success of Trump and Cruz can be seen as a repudiation of the Paul Ryan agenda among the Republican electorate. Why would these same voters suddenly decide they actually wanted Ryan all along when they were pulling the lever for Trump or Cruz? What secret message does Ryan have that’s going to get these voters pumped for his candidacy?
It is true that Ryan could be a uniter — his establishment-backed bid could bring together the hostile Trump and Cruz camps in mutual animosity against the party leadership.
Anyone who thinks the speaker’s bid could be anything more than a quixotic attempt by the Republican Old Guard to give the nomination to someone they like rather than someone they fantasize about murdering is deluded.
The most depressing thing about all the Ryan chatter is that the party leaders have learned absolutely nothing from this election cycle. They still think America is clamoring for their preferred candidates. Seeing how bad Rubio’s bid went with a Ryan-esque message, that’s probably not the case.
Everyone knows the Republican Party is embroiled in a civil war. But putting Paul Ryan forward as the solution to the internal strife would only solidify the narrative that it’s a civil war pitting out-of-touch elites versus disenchanted voters.
