A new set of Quinnipiac University polls shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump either ahead or trailing by a single point in three key swing states won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
According to the polls, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads Trump 43 percent to 42 percent in Florida and Pennsylvania — within the 3-point margin of error — while Trump leads 43 to 39 in Ohio. Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders fares better than Clinton, leading 44-42 in Florida, 43-41 in Ohio, and 47-41 in Pennsylvania.
The close numbers should have Clinton sweating. If he wins those three states while holding every other state won by Mitt Romney in 2012, he would win the presidency.
Pennsylvania hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988, but flipping it back into the GOP column has long been a dream of party strategists. George W. Bush only lost the state by 2.5 percent in 2004 and Romney lost it by about 5 percent. With 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is a juicy prize and would dramatically improve Trump’s chances of beating Clinton. (RELATED: Troops Overwhelmingly Want Trump, Not Clinton)
Ohio and Florida have been more winnable in recent history, as both voted for George W. Bush and Florida only narrowly went for Obama in 2012.
The polls also revealed gigantic demographic gaps between Trump supporters and Clinton supporters.
“This election may be good for divorce lawyers,” said Quinnipiac assistant director Peter Brown. “The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump. In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”
Similarly, Trump has a sizable lead with older voters in all three states while Clinton is stronger with young voters.
Both candidates are brutally unpopular, each finishing below 40 percent favorability in all three states.
The polls were conducted April 27 to May 8, meaning about half of the polling period came before former Republican candidate Sen. [crscore]Ted Cruz[/crscore] conceded the Republican nomination to Trump. The Florida poll surveyed 1,051 voters, the Ohio poll surveyed 1,042 voters, and the Pennsylvania poll surveyed 1,077 voters. All three had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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