A study of America’s most important political counties was recently released and outlines how they will successfully predict the general election, according to Michael Barone, senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner.
The counties made the list not because they hold the most political influence, or contain the largest amount of donors. Instead it’s because their individual election results reflect the results of their respective states either very closely or exactly, according to the study.
Wake County, North Carolina’s largest county, went for President Barack Obama in 2008 and for former Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012. The state also went for both those candidates in each election.
This time around, Clinton has a 57.6 percent chance of winning North Carolina and earning the state’s 15 electoral votes, according to statistics site 538.
Hillsborough County, Florida — home to Tampa — has voted with the state in every presidential election since 1880, except for the 1960 race, according to Barone.
Florida has 29 electoral votes, and Clinton is leading by a large margin. Statisticians give Clinton a 61.6 percent chance of winning the state, compared to a 38.4 percent chance of Trump winning.
Stark County, Ohio didn’t accurately select the state pick in 2004, but is still the most accurate county when it comes to predicting the Ohio presidential election. The averages in the county have never been more than two points off in either direction.
The other counties listed are: Loudoun County, Virginia, one of the richest counties in the nation; Boulder and Douglas counties in Colorado; Bucks, Luzerne, and Mercer counties in Pennsylvania; Hillsborough County, New Hampshire; Cedar County, Iowa; Clark County, Nevada; and Maricopa County, Arizona.
Clinton currently has leads in most of these states according the recent polling. But, Republican nominee Donald Trump told supporters last week that the only way he could lose Pennsylvania is if Democrats cheated. Trump, however, is far down in the polls, with a nine-point deficit in the RealClearPolitics average.
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