Silver: Trump Shouldn’t Press Hillary Health Issue

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Phillip Stucky Political Reporter
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Republican nominee Donald Trump should avoid capitalizing on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s recent struggle with pneumonia, according to political statistician Nate Silver.

Silver tweeted out a short analysis on the effect that the illness could have on the race, beginning the tweet storm by saying he was, “All in favor of more reporting about prez candidates’ health. Should be actual reporting though & not ‘raises doubts’/’casts shadows’ stuff.”

Silver noted that Clinton’s win probability fell 4 to 5 percent in betting polls within hours of the announcement, but Trump failed to gain much amid Clinton’s fall. Instead, the chances of other high profile Democrat Tim Kaine, Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders increased.

The key difference is whether or not this turns into a big deal, according to Silver. If it is a short term problem, “then it probably devolves in a few days to a big partisan food-fight. Trump and/or media could overreach, motivating Clinton supporters.”

“But on the remote chance Clinton has SERIOUS problems, as fewer swamps allege, she could drop out, which probably doesn’t help Trump,” Silver added. “Trump benefits if there are recurring problems, more serious than disclosed so far. But can’t be so serious they force Clinton to quit.”

The Trump campaign announced they would release Trump’s full health report this week, just a day after Clinton staffers told reporters the Democratic nominee was ill.

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