Russian President Vladimir Putin is rapidly accelerating operations in Syria to take advantage of the 2016 election, and the lame-duck status of President Barack Obama.
“Putin is in a hurry before the American elections,” a Russian political scientist told The New York Times. “The next American president will face a new reality and will be forced to accept it.”
The new reality Putin hopes to create involves one with limited U.S. options to strengthen any opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Putin’s desire of his “new reality” is all too apparent in his new efforts in Aleppo. After the U.S. cut all bilateral contact with Russia over Syria negotiations Monday, Assad and his allies have signaled their intention to go for an all out military victory.
“The three allies believe that expelling opposition groups from Aleppo could deal a ‘knock-out blow’ to the rebellion and, at the very least, force a political settlement on their terms,” security advisory firm The Soufan Group noted Wednesday.
Russia also deployed its most advanced missile defense system to Syria recently, likely to deter any U.S. plans to increase strikes on non-Islamic State targets.
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has signaled a willingness to employ a no-fly zone in Syria if elected president. Obama and military leaders frequently point out that establishing a no-fly zone requires the U.S. to wipe out Assad and Russia’s air defense capabilities in Syria, to ensure the safety of U.S. aircraft.
“For us to control all of the airspace in Syria it would require us to go to war, against Syria and Russia,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford told Congress Sept. 26. “That’s a pretty fundamental decision that certainly I’m not going to make.”
“The seizure of Aleppo would be a fait accompli for the next American president. The war would go on and the Islamic State would still occupy parts of the country. But the regime would retain the north-south spine of the country,” Washington Near East Institute Senior Fellow Andrew Tabler told TheNYT.
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