Traders Are Betting On A Clinton Win, BIG TIME

Robert Donachie | Capitol Hill and Health Care Reporter

Traders are almost unanimously betting on Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to win the presidency, and Democrats to take control of the Senate Nov. 8.

PredictWise, a website that aggregates betting odds in real-time from prediction markets, polling data and bookies, has Clinton winning at a 90 percent to 10 percent probability, or 9:1 odds. Las Vegas odds predictors give Clinton as high as a 72 percent chance of winning.

At this point, the payout per dollar for Clinton is an incredibly safe bet. Take, for instance, the betting exchange website Betfair, Clinton has a 1.23 odds which is a fairly safe bet (close to 1:1 odds).  If one places a $500 bet, they stand to gain a $115 payout on their principal. The same $500 bet for Trump, who has a 5.3:1 odds of winning the election, would mean one stands to earn $2,200 if Trump snagged the victory.

A bet on Hillary Clinton to win the presidency is safer than a bet for the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series. The Chicago Cubs have a 1.55:1 odds, meaning that  a $500 bet for the cubs gets a $275 payout.

RealClearPolitics has the betting odds for the Presidential Election at 83 percent to 17 percent in favor of Hillary Clinton.

The presidency is not the only safe bet according to trading predictions. Democrats have 4:1 odds of winning the Senate majority in 2016, according to PredictWise. The betting markets show that the House, however, should be Republican control.

RealClearPolitics polling average has Clinton leading over Trump 47.3 to 42.1 as of Friday October 27.

All in all, it appears that bets on Hillary Clinton and the Democrats are safer bets in the 2016 election. Traders stand to earn greater return if they bet on Trump and the Senate to swing the majority, but also put themselves in a position to lose big if the market predictions are correct.

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