Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton just can’t seem to get black voters or young voters to the polls for early voting, according to a Monday analysis by The New York Times.
Black voters are turning out in far fewer numbers than they did in 2012. The states of Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio all experienced severe drops in early votes from black voters. Marc Caputo of Politico also notes a significant difference in the key swing state of Florida.
Voters under the age of 30 are also turning up in smaller numbers than in previous elections. Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio saw the most drastic decreases among younger voters, but other key states like Virginia, Nevada, and Michigan also experienced severe drops in voter turnout.
Both young and black voters are key demographics that Clinton carries significantly in polls, indicating low turnout with these key groups may harm Clinton in November.
It should be noted that the the numbers are based on decreasing percentages with respect to the overall voting population. More and more Americans are voting early than ever before. Only 10 percent of voters cast an early ballot in 1996, compared to 31 percent of all voters in the 2014 “surge” election.
2016 promises to smash records for early voter turnout, but there won’t be a means to compare 2016 to past early voter turnout until the election is over in November.
Republican ballots lead Democrats in Florida, Arizona, and Nebraska. Democrats have the early turnout lead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Iowa. Florida is an anomaly compared to prior elections. Generally, Republicans carry the lead in mail-in ballots in the state, and Democrats surge when in-person voting begins. After nearly a week of in-person voting, Republicans still cling to a small majority.
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