Former Vice President Al Gore might have won the 2000 presidential election if the temperature had been slightly higher on election day, according to a new study.
“Based on our model, an increase of only 1°C (1.8°F) may have made Al Gore the 43rd United States President instead of George W. Bush, as Gore would have won in Florida,” researchers wrote in a study published online Wednesday.
“It is often mentioned that ‘the heat is on’ during presidential campaigns, and our findings indeed clarify that temperature matters when it comes to actual voting,” wrote U.S. and European researchers.
Researchers claim they found evidence increases in state-level temperatures from one election day to the next increase voter turnout, and that warmer weather may even help incumbent parties.
“We found that increases in state-level temperatures from one election to another are related to increases in state-level voter turnout, and increases in votes for the incumbent party,” co-author Jasper Van Assche of Ghent University said in a statement.
But the authors note the overall effect of temperature on elections is “relatively small,” but could matter in close election — like the 2000 presidential election.
President George W. Bush eked out a victory against Gore in 2000 after a close recall in Florida. Had it been slightly warmer, Gore may have won, according to the study.
Interestingly enough, both Gore’s global warming films have segments dedicated to his loss in the 2000 election. Maybe more global warming would have helped?
So how credible is this study? All this writer can say is correlation does not equal causation.
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