Leading Model: New York Among 7 States Projected To Have Hit Its Peak

Win McNamee/Getty Images

Daily Caller News Foundation logo
Andrew Kerr Investigative Reporter
Font Size:

Seven states will have seen their peak hospital resource use come and go by the end of Wednesday, according to a leading coronavirus projection model that has informed the White House’s response to the pandemic.

New York, Michigan and Louisiana, which have seen some of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the United States, are among the states projected to reach peak hospital resource usage by the end of Wednesday, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. Vermont, Washington, Colorado and Ohio are also projected to reach their peak hospital resource use by the end of the day, the model shows.

The IHME has drastically reduced its projections in recent days on the hospital resources needed to combat coronavirus at its peak spread in the United States. The Washington-based institute updated its model on Wednesday showing that it projects that 94,249 hospital beds will be needed nationwide at the virus’s peak, a 64% reduction from the model’s April 1 projection that 262,092 hospital beds would be needed.

The IHME has also reduced its projected number of nationwide COVID-19 deaths by the beginning of August to 60,415, a 35% decrease from the 93,531 nationwide deaths its model had projected on April 1.

The IHME expects New York, which has seen the worst coronavirus outbreak in the country with 140,000 confirmed cases as of Wednesday morning, to hit peak hospital resource use on Wednesday. New York’s peak daily deaths are expected to arrive on Thursday with a projected 780 fatalities, the institute’s model shows. (RELATED: Cuomo: ‘We Don’t Need Any Additional Ventilators’)

Michigan, which has seen the third-most confirmed coronavirus cases in the country, reached peak hospital resource usage on Tuesday and will reach peak daily fatalities on Thursday, according to the IHME model.

And the model expects that Louisiana, which has the fifth-most confirmed cases in the country, will hit its peak hospital resource usage on Saturday after hitting its peak daily fatalities on Tuesday.

Delaware and Washington, D.C., are expected to reach peak hospital resource usage on Thursday, the IHME model shows.

The IHME model projects that 25 states and Washington, D.C., will have seen their peak hospital resource usage come and go by next Friday. (RELATED: Coronavirus Model Leveraged By White House Dramatically Reduced Its Estimates)

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 03: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the press briefing room with members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force April 3, 2020 in Washington, DC. President Trump announced that Americans in virus hot spots should wear a mask when out in public as the death rate caused by coronavirus has nearly doubled in three days in New York City while the nation continues to reel from the impacts of COVID-19. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the press briefing room with members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force April 3, 2020, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

The director of the IHME, Dr. Christopher Murray, told reporters on Monday that the recent reductions in the IHME’s model are largely driven by encouraging figures from Italy and Spain showing that peak daily coronavirus deaths arrived sooner than previously predicted, which suggests that social distancing policies have had an impact on containing the spread of the virus.

However, Murray said the promising numbers should not be seen as an excuse to ease up on social distancing measures.

“If you ease up prematurely, the epidemic can rebound right back to the level we’re at right now in a matter of weeks,” Murray said. “The potential for a rebound is enormous if we let up on social distancing.”

Murray said the debate on when to ease up on stay-at-home orders shouldn’t begin until “after June.”

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact