Democrats were expected to increase their majority in the House of Representatives after the 2020 election. Instead, Republicans flipped at least 13 seats and achieved a net gain of at least 10. Despite these serious losses, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared that Democrats had a “mandate” from the American people and dismissed warnings from moderate members of her party that slogans like “defund the police” would likely cause a bigger defeat for the party in the 2022 midterms.
A number of factors could contribute to a Republican victory in 2022 and Pelosi’s ouster from the Speaker’s chair. A new Republican coalition that includes more minority voters, advantageous redistricting in many states and a radical Democrat agenda could all end Pelosi’s tenure.