A new poll by Democratic and Republican strategists is causing optimism for a potential third-party run by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia.
The poll measures a hypothetical race between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and a No Labels ticket, according to the poll. In that matchup, their “moderate independent” candidate starts with “a base support of 21%” despite the name recognition of the major party candidates and no definition of independent, via the memo.
Over 2,200 people participated in the poll, answering the following question on a three-way race: “If the 2024 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were the following, for whom would you vote?”
No Labels, a bipartisan group that is potentially launching a third-party run in the 2024 election, will host a town hall with Manchin in New Hampshire on July 17. Manchin has not made an official determination on a presidential bid, but he refused to rule out the possibility when talking to Iowa voters on Wednesday. Both Iowa and New Hampshire are critical early states for both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Joe Manchin says his event with No Labels in NH is “nothing about a third-party” bid
But he also doesn’t rule out an independent bid and says of D concerns that it could hurt Biden: “The most important thing is: How do we help democracy do what it’s supposed to do?” he told me pic.twitter.com/ovxYcIPkJz— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 12, 2023
Some Democrats have expressed concern that a Manchin run may help elect former President Donal Trump.
“Whether it’s 38% or 43%, the die-hard Trump vote isn’t going anywhere,” Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist, told Axios on Thursday.
“A nameless moderate independent that starts with 21% support isn’t the profile of a spoiler. It’s the profile of a candidate with a legitimate chance to win the presidency,” No Label’s memo responded to concerns of a spoiler campaign. “Maybe the problem isn’t the potential choice No Labels 2024 insurance project may offer, but what our two major parties are selling.”