New Forecast Says The 2024 Election Will Come Down To Four States

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Mary Lou Masters Contributor
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A new political forecast released Thursday argues that the 2024 general election could come down to four states — Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The four “toss-ups” and their 56 Electoral College votes make for a “very narrow playing field” in 2024, which The Cook Political Report views as being another matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to author Amy Walter. Whether a third-party ticket is present, as well as the sway of suburban, moderate and Latino voters, will be key in determining the outcome of these battleground states.

Of the remaining states that are considered lean, likely or solid to vote for either major party, the Republicans will likely pick up 235 Electoral College votes, while the Democrats could notch 247. Michigan and Nevada lean Democrat, and Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and a single-vote district in Nebraska are likely blue; North Carolina leans Republican, with Florida, Texas and a single-vote district in Maine likely voting red.

“North Carolina is to Democrats what Nevada is to Republicans: tantalizingly competitive, but still just out of reach,” Walter wrote. (RELATED: The 2024 Election Could Come Down To These Four States)

In the 2020 election, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were among the closest states in the country. Biden beat Trump in Georgia by 0.2 points, in Arizona by 0.3 points, in Wisconsin by 0.7 points and in Pennsylvania by 1.2 points, according to Politico.

There are also several states that voted Republican and Democrat from 2008 to 2020 that the report argues are no longer competitive — Indiana, Iowa and Ohio, with Florida becoming significantly less of a battleground. Other states of that category continue to be competitive, like Michigan and North Carolina, as well as single-vote districts in Maine and Nebraska.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, came out with its 2024 Electoral College predictions in late June, and similarly argued the general will likely be a rematch between Biden and Trump. The four states Sabato’s Crystal Ball characterized as “toss-ups” slightly differed than that of The Cook Political Report, as it tapped Nevada as one of the battlegrounds instead of Pennsylvania.

The RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages for a 2024 Republican and Democratic primary, based on the most recent polling, suggests Trump and Biden are leading the respective fields at 52.4% and 63.2%, respectively. The RCP also indicates Biden would win a general election against Trump by nearly 1 point.

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