Media talking heads eager for another four years of Donald Trump scandal stories have been quick to dismiss the prospects of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis since he officially entered the contest for the Republican presidential nomination barely two months ago.
Recent polls, both national and from early primary states, show DeSantis trailing former President Trump by double digits, and a staff shakeup within the DeSantis campaign has driven speculation among donors that DeSantis is struggling. His critics even pointed to a DeSantis motorcade fender-bender as evidence that his campaign lacked momentum.
The great DeSantis pile-on has been going on since the Florida governor won re-election by a landslide last year and became the presumptive candidate to beat for the GOP nomination.
It’s pretty tricky to write Gov. DeSantis’ obituary before the race officially starts, but that’s what the media and Trump’s allies appear to be trying to do. (RELATED: CHRISTIAN WHITON: Ron DeSantis Will Revive The Middle Class. Here’s How)
It’s not that national polls in a primary contest don’t matter, it’s just that they don’t matter much. Data on where the conservative base of the Grand Old Party stands compared to donors is interesting, and it’s certainly a warning that the populist wing and the party elites aren’t fully aligned. But that’s not exactly breaking news, and it’s not a determinate factor in a nominating contest that’s decided at the state level.
Former President Trump may still have an iron grip on the populist base of the Republican Party, but he’s not invincible — and he knows it.
The Republican presidential primary is a complex and drawn-out process of barnstorming early states to woo GOP voters and delegates until one candidate has enough support to earn the nomination at next summer’s Republican convention in Milwaukee. The process can be chaotic, but it’s designed to allow a broad field of hopefuls to make their pitch to Republican voters, avoiding an undemocratic coronation by party insiders.
Trump and his allies know — and the latest campaign finance reports confirm — that he doesn’t have the resources for a protracted primary fight. Trump needs to end challenges to his primacy over the GOP quickly.
According to the media’s analysis of campaign finance disclosures, Trump’s network of political committees has paid roughly $60 million in legal fees since he lost the 2020 election. Trump may dominate the Republican primary field today, but he’s bleeding cash at an unsustainable rate, and his legal troubles are not going away anytime soon. The longer the primary drags on, the weaker the former president becomes.
In the dash for cash, DeSantis and his allied campaign committees are by far the frontrunners, with nearly $120 million in the bank. The Trump campaign has about half that amount between his fund-raising committees and super PAC. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is in third place with roughly $40 million.
As far as the polls go, Iowa’s January 15 presidential caucus is the first real test of the nomination battle, and Trump’s showing in polls in the Hawkeye State differs from his performance in national surveys.
A recent New York Times/Siena College survey of the Iowa caucus highlights Trump’s weakness at the state level. While he leads DeSantis 43 percent to 20 percent with likely caucusgoers, he’s still below 50 percent. With nearly five months before the Iowa caucus, there’s time — though not a lot — for Trump’s challengers to close that gap.
A win in Iowa for Trump would undoubtedly be a major blow to DeSantis and the rest of the field of hopefuls. But Trump’s support is softer than the oft-quoted 37-percent floor. The base is with him, but even the most hardcore conservatives are leaving the door cracked to other options. However, those voters can’t be expected to jump ship until they know they have a winning alternative. And that’s where the primary process comes in. The base like the former president but also wants to start winning again. DeSantis and the other challenges must demonstrate to voters during primary season that they can deliver on that promise.
A consensus alternative to Trump may not have emerged yet, but DeSantis is by far the closest out of the pack of hopefuls. He is the only other candidate polling in double digits. His favorability has remained consistent despite daily attacks from Trump and critiques in the media — the next most popular candidate is Sen. Scott, who has yet to break the 10-percent ceiling — and he has the war chest to go all the way to the GOP convention.
If the determining factor is electability next November — and I would argue it is — then Gov. DeSantis is the clear choice for GOP voters. (RELATED: DAVID S. JACKSON: Trump Backers Are Smearing America’s Best Hope For Real Conservative Change)
DeSantis is promising to put Republicans back in a position to lead the country out of the swamp of the Biden administration. The new economic independence plan that DeSantis rolled out last week shows he wants to move the nation forward and get back to the things that matter most to American voters.
Dan Eberhart; DeSantis donor, chief executive officer of Canary, LLC, a Denver, Colorado-based drilling-services company, and managing partner of Eberhart Capital, LLC.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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