A pollster with ties to former President Donald Trump observed that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley “has surged” in Iowa and New Hampshire since last week’s first 2024 GOP primary debate, closing in on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and conservative businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, according to a memo obtained by Axios.
Tony Fabrizio, who conducts polls for the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super political action committee (PAC), maintained that the former president is still the clear frontrunner in both key early primary state surveys, according to the memo. Haley rose to double digits in Iowa, following DeSantis for third, and ended up in a three-way statistical tie with the Florida governor and Ramaswamy for second in New Hampshire.
“In short, the data in both states shows that former President Trump still dominates BOTH contests, while DeSantis has flatlined, Haley has surged, and Ramaswamy is seen as last week’s debate winner,” the memo reads. “The much hoped for DeSantis ‘bounce’ was really a ‘dead cat bounce’ in that it doesn’t exist. Why? Because these voters didn’t see a DeSantis debate win – far from it. With Haley’s surge, DeSantis finds himself with another challenger for a distant 2nd place besides Ramaswamy – Nikki Haley.”
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 23: Republican presidential candidates (L-R), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley participate in the first debate of the GOP primary season hosted by FOX News at the Fiserv Forum. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
In Iowa, Trump is leading the crowded field with 44%, followed by DeSantis at 18%, Haley at 10% and Ramaswamy at 7%, according to the memo. The former president is ahead by 37 points in New Hampshire, while DeSantis garnered 11% support and Haley and Ramaswamy both received 9%. (RELATED: Here Are The GOP Presidential Candidates Who Got The Biggest Bump In First Post-Debate Poll)
An overwhelming majority of likely Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters remain committed to the former president, according to the memo. In Iowa, 43% are committed to DeSantis while only 17% are committed to Haley, and in New Hampshire, neither candidate was able to breach 30%.
Both key early primary states tapped Ramaswamy as last Wednesday’s debate winner, with Haley and DeSantis roughly tied for second place, according to the memo. The likely Iowa caucus goers chose South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott for third, while likely New Hampshire primary voters picked former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
“We echo Mr. Fabrizio’s sentiment: Vivek was the clear winner of the debate!” Ramaswamy’s spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Fabrizio surveyed 500 likely Iowa Caucus voters and 500 likely New Hampshire primary voters between Aug. 25 and Aug. 28, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 points.
DeSantis did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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