New Poll Shows Key Governor’s Race In Dead Heat Just Days Before Election

(Photo by Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

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Mary Lou Masters Contributor
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The gubernatorial race between Kentucky’s Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear and Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron appears to be in a dead heat just days before Tuesday’s election, according to a Friday poll.

Beshear and Cameron are tied at 47% among likely Kentucky voters ahead of the Nov. 7 election, with 4% remaining undecided and 2% naming someone else, according to an Emerson College survey. Among the 4% of voters who remain undecided on the race, 62% are leaning toward voting for Cameron while 39% are leaning toward Beshear. (RELATED: Dem Gov Outpaces GOP Opponent In Fundraising Just Months Ahead Of Election)

“Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron; now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase. Notably, October’s poll was of registered voters in Kentucky, while this final election poll includes only those who are very likely or have already voted in Kentucky.”

Cameron led Beshear among independents who say they will vote for or are leaning toward supporting the attorney general at 48% to 45%, respectively, according to the poll. While Beshear led Cameron among those aged 18 to 49, the attorney general garnered more of the vote from 50-year-olds and older.

“The race between Biden Cheerleader Andy Beshear and Trump-backed Attorney General Daniel Cameron continues to tighten,” Sean Southard, Cameron campaign spokesman, told the Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement. “It’s clear momentum is building for AG Cameron as voters learn more about Andy’s continued support for Joe Biden and his agenda in Kentucky. Attorney General Cameron is in a strong position to win and deliver a new era of Republican leadership for Kentucky.”

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - APRIL 08: Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, Commonwealth of Kentucky, speaks onstage during the 2022 Concordia Lexington Summit - Day 2 at Lexington Marriott City Center on April 08, 2022 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Jon Cherry/Getty Images for Concordia )

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY – APRIL 08: Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, Commonwealth of Kentucky, speaks onstage during the 2022 Concordia Lexington Summit – Day 2 at Lexington Marriott City Center. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images for Concordia )

A majority of Kentucky voters anticipate Beshear’s reelection next week at 57%, while 41% believe Cameron will unseat the governor, according to the poll.

The survey also found that a majority of Kentucky voters oppose the state’s abortion bill, which bars the procedure in nearly all instances with little exceptions, at 55% compared to 28% who support it.

Polling on the two-man race has largely indicated Beshear was favored anywhere from 2 to 16 points, with one survey conducted just after both candidates secured their respective party nominations finding the two tied at 47%, according to FiveThirtyEight’s compilation.

Beshear’s reelection campaign significantly out-raised Cameron, with the former bringing in nearly $15 million compared to the latter‘s $2.8 million, according to Kentucky Registry of Election Finance records released in mid-September. The margin between the candidates’ cash on hand totals was closer, with Beshear and Cameron having $4.2 million and $1.4 million in the bank, respectively.

The Emerson College survey polled 1,000 likely voters from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Beshear’s campaign did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

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