In the aftermath of Tuesday’s election, the unmistakable impact of abortion ballot measures like Ohio Issue 1 on the electoral landscape should be a clear indicator of the future of voter mobilization.
Let’s delve deeper into what unfolded in Ohio last night. While it was a non-general election with typically low voter turnout, last night was different, boasting 48.10 percent voter turnout based on early reporting, up nearly 18 percent from 2017’s turnout of 30.29.
Over the past 25 years, research has consistently shown that states with initiatives witness higher voter turnout rates than those without. During midterm elections, initiative states exhibit a seven to nine percent higher turnout rate, while during presidential elections, the rate is three to 4.5 percent higher. Initiatives can be particularly influential in closely contested elections when a specific issue resonates deeply with a particular group of voters.
One striking example is the 2020 presidential election in Arizona. Proposition 207, which legalized marijuana in the state, received more votes than either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. What fueled this phenomenon? The enthusiasm of young Democratic voters in Maricopa County. Many of these young voters eagerly supported Question 1 and cast their presidential votes almost as an afterthought.
As we look ahead to 2024, we anticipate narrow margins in many key states. The Democratic Party has recognized the potential of ballot measures and is promoting various initiatives, including raising the minimum wage and expanding Medicaid. They are also supporting 10 to 15 abortion measures like the one Ohio just passed, including in the pivotal swing states of Pennsylvania and Arizona. Their organization is evident, with J.B. Pritzker, the billionaire Democratic governor of Illinois, backing Think Big America, which focuses on promoting abortion rights ballot measures.
The power of ballot measures, often underestimated, is now more apparent than ever. Yet, as the Democratic Party embraces this strategy, the Republican Party finds itself at a crossroads.
Maybe it is time for certain factions within the Republican party and their donors to reevaluate their strategy? Last night’s results should serve as a wake-up call. Instead of persistently opposing progressive ballot measures, they should consider adopting positions that better align with their constituents’ values.
Prioritizing issues such as safeguarding local agriculture; addressing the widespread problem of retail theft; pushing for election reform; offering tax relief on fuel, gas and food; and even amending unrealistic so-called green regulations should be the goal. But these should not just be bullet points on the party’s platform or content for a candidate’s website. Transform them into concrete ballot measures in key states to get the base excited and motivated to get out to vote.
On Tuesday, the Democrats mobilized tens of thousands of voters with a single-issue strategy and a referendum. The big question is whether the GOP will learn from this defeat. Failure to do so could result in narrow losses in key battleground states in 2024.
Gerry Gunster is the founder and CEO of Gunster Strategies Worldwide, an issue advocacy and ballot measure firm. With 25 years of experience, Gunster has successfully managed over 50 statewide and local initiatives and referendums in nearly every U.S. state and even internationally. In addition to their work on initiatives and referendums, the firm offers strategic political counsel to domestic and international businesses, associations, and countries.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.