The newest production variant of the B61 family of nuclear gravity bombs that have been in service since the early 1960s — the B61-12 — has recently been certified to be launched by B-2 Spirt Bombers. It has also been certified for the F-15 since June 2020. Its program average unit cost is $20 million per bomb, or about $9.6 billion for 480 of them. The program has been described by the Federation of American Scientists as being “Gold-Plated” (i.e. way too damn expensive).
If we were talking about designing and producing 480 new bombs from the ground up, including having to provide all the highly enriched uranium, the $10 billion program cost would still be high, though somewhat more justifiable.
But we aren’t.
Instead, we are talking about taking existing B61s and upgrading them to be guided bombs with flight profiles, including those optimized for bunker busting.
More specifically, B61-12s are created by overhauling existing B61-4 bombs by replacing ageing non-nuclear components such as the fuse and batteries, then fitting them with a tail kit assembly (TKA) that includes spin rocket motors, an inertial guidance system and four maneuvering fins. Of course, the relatively inexpensive components cannot just be slapped onto the back of the existing bombs. The B61-12 is not just a guided bomb; it is a nuclear guided bomb optimized for destroying deeply buried facilities while ensuring a minimum of collateral damage. This makes its mission much more complex, and it must incorporate higher levels of failsafe features than those of the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits that turns dumb bombs into precision guided munitions.
Converting the existing B61s into failsafe nuclear bunker busters involved extensive research, development, testing and evaluation (RDT&E). It also involves full integration of the bombs with the platforms (aircraft) that will deliver them. The people designing the bombs presumably had access to other guidance systems used on other missiles and bombs, such as the inertial navigation system used in the JDAM kits that could be adapted for use by the B61-12 (and if not, why?). And they were able to draw on the millions of dollars of research conducted under the auspices of the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator design program and other research. Further, they started with working bombs that already sport variable yields of 0.3 kilotons, 1.5kt 10kt and 50kt. And they could draw on the many past integrations of smart weapons with our aircraft.
Hence, while it was a complex task, upgrading existing B61s to B61-12s was nothing like developing and manufacturing a variable yield, guided nuclear bomb from scratch. Bottom line, everything involved in the B61-12 conversions has pretty much been done before.
It is reasonable to expect that such an effort would cost many millions, perhaps even hundreds of millions. But $9.6 billion to $10 billion? No way.
While a detailed breakout of the final of B61 program cost is not available to the public, we can get an idea of what it costs to turn a legacy dumb bomb into a guided bomb by looking at the U.S. Air Force/Navy JDAM program that developed precision guidance modules for 500lb., 1000lb., and 2000lb. general purpose unguided bombs. The RDT&E for the JDAM was approximately $1.2 billion in current USD. These development costs included integration with the A-10C, AV-8B, B-1B, B-2A, B-52H, F-15E, F-16 (all blocks), F/A-18A+/C/D/E/F, and F-22A aircraft. Today, JDAM kit costs depend on when they are bought and in what quantity, but are usually around $20,000 per unit.
Even if you add another billion in costs to meet the nuclear safety/surety standards, that only gets us to $2.2 billion dollars in RDT&E costs for the B61-12. And even if we quadruple the unit cost of the JDAM kit, which has both GPS and INS, as opposed to the INS-only guidance for the B61-12, that still only adds on another $10 million.
No doubt, experts will be glad to explain that we don’t understand all the costs and the hurdles involved with converting existing B61 unguided bombs to guided bunker busters, and that is probably true. But given that a billion dollars represents 9.8 million engineering man hours, or the work output of 4600 engineers for a whole year, it would be really, really interesting to see a real breakout of costs that includes such things as Org and PERT charts filled in with enough personnel and tasks to generate the enormous amount of billable labor necessary to add up to anywhere near $9 billion. It would also be very interesting to see the bill of materials for the one hundred or so pounds of components that make up a single TKA that should cost tens of thousands dollars — not hundreds of thousands.
It is a sad fact that since the dissolution of the Soviet Union we have seen a precipitous decline in the bang for the buck taxpayers get for their defense procurement dollar. And our military is getting weaker despite defense budgets averaging over $700 billion per year over the last 10 years.
Given that the Pentagon has failed its sixth audit in a row and cannot account for $1.9 trillion dollars in assets, it’s time that we demand more accountability. It’s time that we stop accepting bloated program and weapons systems costs that strain credulity well past the breaking point for anyone with a lick of common sense. And it’s time to realize that believing in peace through strength means supporting real accountability and disruptive defense reform.
Mike Fredenburg writes about politics and defense matters, with an emphasis on defense reform. He has a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering and a Masters in Production Operations Management and has written for the Epoch Times, National Review, the San Diego Daily Transcript, the San Diego Union-Tribute and other outlets.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.