CNN Data Reporter Harry Enten Says Key Dem Demographic Trending ‘Toward Donald Trump’

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Brianna Lyman News and Commentary Writer
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CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday that union workers — who are reliably democratic — are trending more toward former President Donald Trump.

President Joe Biden finally received the endorsement of the United Autoworkers Union (UAW) in late January after some tension. UAW President Shawn Fain said, prior to the endorsement, that the union had not decided who it would endorse despite Biden showing strong support for the union during its six-week-long strike.

But union workers may not be reliably Democrat anymore.

Enten said while the belief has always been the union vote goes Democratic, data from key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin show Trump in a dead heat with Biden.

“I think this might be a bit of a surprise to some folks. This is among union members in key swing states, Joe Biden at 47%. Donald Trump at 47%. This is a clear movement from what we saw in 2020. The recall vote on that was Biden plus eight. So this is a movement towards Donald Trump. Donald Trump gaining among union members as he has gained nationwide as well,” Enten said, explaining that in Michigan and Nevada union workers make up more than 10% of the electorate.

“What about the trend line for union workers over time?” CNN’s Poppy Harlow asked.

Enten explained that in 1948 Democrats won the union vote by 62 points, noting union voters did make up a much larger share of the vote at the time. Former President Bill Clinton won the union vote by 31 points while Biden won the union vote by 22 points.

“I was looking at some of the national polls there and we’re also seeing that trend line more towards Donald Trump this time around. So union members are a big part of the democratic coalition, but fewer and fewer of them are voting democratic and why is that? What is going on here? Well, union member vote in 2020, among college graduates, Joe Biden … won union members by 46 points. But look with no college degree. Donald Trump won that vote by six points. So oftentimes we think of unions we think of blue-collar workers but in fact there are a lot of white-collar voters in unions and the fact is those voters are going over from Biden, but you look at those blue-collar workers they are much more in the Trump camp.”

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Union membership rate fell to an all-time low in 2023 despite the Biden Administration pursuing several policies aimed at boosting organized labor, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. (RELATED: Organized Labor Is Causing ‘Union Joe’ Biden A Lot Of Headaches)

Just 10% of American wage and salary workers were union members in 2023, down from the previous all-time low of 10.1% in 2022.

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The White House announced in March 2023 that federal agencies have been working to advance recommendations made by a task force that focused on worker organization. The task force recommended providing workers with information about unionizing, expanding collective bargaining rights for the Transportation Security Administration, helping workers secure collective bargaining agreements and increasing federal messaging on the importance of unionization.