A study published in mid-March argued that a portion of the San Andreas fault line in California could be ramping up for a big shake. Just like every other semi-active fault in the world.
A fairly active section of the San Andreas fault, called Parkfield, is supposedly behaving quite differently from the last time it ruptured in 2004, according to a study published in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science. Parkfield is said to splinter once every 22 years or so and often shows some tell-tale signs before it does.
These signs include the opening and closing of cracks beneath the surface of the Earth. But apparently, Parkfield is acting so differently to the 2004 earthquake that there’s no way to know where or how strongly the next quake will hit, according to the study’s lead author Luca Malagnini.
Did literally everyone with a modicum of geological knowledge just groan at Malagnini’s statement?
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One of the first things we’re taught in our age 11 geography classes in Britain is that it is scientifically impossible to predict when an earthquake will hit. While geologists can forecast the rough location of an earthquake using proxy data from physical geologies, as well as evidence of previous quakes, there is no way to know for sure when one will hit. Nor how big it’ll be.
Malagnini seemingly has the best job ever as the director of research at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy. He basically just got paid to tell science what even 11-year-olds could have gathered from one geography class, which sounds like a freaking excellent job (in my opinion). (RELATED: Insane Videos Emerge From Massive Earthquake In Taiwan)
Researchers are sticking around the Parkfield fault to try and find signs that will help them be the first people to ever scientifically “predict” an earthquake.
Honestly, if they pull it off, I will eat my hat and issue a massive apology. I genuinely hope that happens, because it could prevent millions of deaths from future earthquake-related natural disasters.