Of delegates, math, and election rules …

Matt K. Lewis Senior Contributor
Font Size:

Let’s suppose, having just won Iowa, Mitt Romney goes on to win New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries (this is not an impossible scenario).

Romney would have, at that point, won just 37 of the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination. (The likely amount is much lower; he won’t win all 12 of New Hampshire’s delegates.)

Psychologically, he would be perceived as unstoppable. But mathematically, not so much.

Note: The reason Romney would have accumulated so few delegates is because the early states like New Hampshire and South Carolina (and Florida) were penalized half their delegates for moving their primaries to January.

In fairness to all the talking heads who would coronate Romney after gaining a miniscule number of delegates, he would have gained tremendous momentum. What is more, there is little evidence to suggest anyone else could wrest the nomination from him. (Is anyone else showing signs they could gain steam? … Any signs conservatives are about to actually coalesce around an alternative??)

But here’s my point: Even assuming Romney starts running the table, there would still be a lot of delegates to be had. And there is a reason we actually have elections.

So how might this play out?

If Romney does go 3-and-0, some of the other candidates will see the writing on the wall. If some of them — having accepted defeat (Rick Perry?) — drop out, maybe things change. Maybe that winnows the field, finally allowing conservatives to finally coalesce around a candidate.

Regardless, some of the candidates would surely hang around, hoping against hope that something comes up — that Romney somehow implodes (remember the Red Sox meltdown last year?) — and then, they will be the ones to pick up the pieces.

This could all last a while.

Even if Romney were to win New Hampshire and South Carolina, new RNC rules will conspire to slow down his “march” to the nomination.

A “winner-take-all” system might have allowed Romney to run up the score, despite winning with just 25, or so, percent of the vote. But the new rules stipulate elections held in March must incorporate some element of proportionality. This will slow things down.

(An aside: Conservatives might want to consider pushing for more radical rules changes in the future. It is often the case that the GOP nominates moderate candidates because the larger conservative voting bloc splits its votes among a large field of conservative candidates. Why not consider an instant-runoff voting system which would allow voters to rank their preferences?)

Ultimately, in an election year that has been so unpredictable, the notion that we can assume anything is absurd.

Matt K. Lewis

PREMIUM ARTICLE: Subscribe To Keep Reading

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign Up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
BENEFITS READERS PASS PATRIOTS FOUNDERS
Daily and Breaking Newsletters
Daily Caller Shows
Ad Free Experience
Exclusive Articles
Custom Newsletters
Editor Daily Rundown
Behind The Scenes Coverage
Award Winning Documentaries
Patriot War Room
Patriot Live Chat
Exclusive Events
Gold Membership Card
Tucker Mug

What does Founders Club include?

Tucker Mug and Membership Card
Founders

Readers,

Instead of sucking up to the political and corporate powers that dominate America, The Daily Caller is fighting for you — our readers. We humbly ask you to consider joining us in this fight.

Now that millions of readers are rejecting the increasingly biased and even corrupt corporate media and joining us daily, there are powerful forces lined up to stop us: the old guard of the news media hopes to marginalize us; the big corporate ad agencies want to deprive us of revenue and put us out of business; senators threaten to have our reporters arrested for asking simple questions; the big tech platforms want to limit our ability to communicate with you; and the political party establishments feel threatened by our independence.

We don't complain -- we can't stand complainers -- but we do call it how we see it. We have a fight on our hands, and it's intense. We need your help to smash through the big tech, big media and big government blockade.

We're the insurgent outsiders for a reason: our deep-dive investigations hold the powerful to account. Our original videos undermine their narratives on a daily basis. Even our insistence on having fun infuriates them -- because we won’t bend the knee to political correctness.

One reason we stand apart is because we are not afraid to say we love America. We love her with every fiber of our being, and we think she's worth saving from today’s craziness.

Help us save her.

A second reason we stand out is the sheer number of honest responsible reporters we have helped train. We have trained so many solid reporters that they now hold prominent positions at publications across the political spectrum. Hear a rare reasonable voice at a place like CNN? There’s a good chance they were trained at Daily Caller. Same goes for the numerous Daily Caller alumni dominating the news coverage at outlets such as Fox News, Newsmax, Daily Wire and many others.

Simply put, America needs solid reporters fighting to tell the truth or we will never have honest elections or a fair system. We are working tirelessly to make that happen and we are making a difference.

Since 2010, The Daily Caller has grown immensely. We're in the halls of Congress. We're in the Oval Office. And we're in up to 20 million homes every single month. That's 20 million Americans like you who are impossible to ignore.

We can overcome the forces lined up against all of us. This is an important mission but we can’t do it unless you — the everyday Americans forgotten by the establishment — have our back.

Please consider becoming a Daily Caller Patriot today, and help us keep doing work that holds politicians, corporations and other leaders accountable. Help us thumb our noses at political correctness. Help us train a new generation of news reporters who will actually tell the truth. And help us remind Americans everywhere that there are millions of us who remain clear-eyed about our country's greatness.

In return for membership, Daily Caller Patriots will be able to read The Daily Caller without any of the ads that we have long used to support our mission. We know the ads drive you crazy. They drive us crazy too. But we need revenue to keep the fight going. If you join us, we will cut out the ads for you and put every Lincoln-headed cent we earn into amplifying our voice, training even more solid reporters, and giving you the ad-free experience and lightning fast website you deserve.

Patriots will also be eligible for Patriots Only content, newsletters, chats and live events with our reporters and editors. It's simple: welcome us into your lives, and we'll welcome you into ours.

We can save America together.

Become a Daily Caller Patriot today.

Signature

Neil Patel