World

Georgetown prof: US not overstretched; ‘our world role is affordable’

Jamie Weinstein Senior Writer
Font Size:

Don’t believe the claims by those on the left — and some on the right — that America is overstretched abroad, says Georgetown University professor Robert J. Lieber.

“[W]e managed to maintain the world’s most advanced and capable military (including a volunteer army), fight two wars plus a global war on terror, and yet at the peak last year we spent just 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense — a figure lower than the average during any of the Cold War years,” Lieber told The Daily Caller.

“The percentage is already on the way down, toward less than 4 percent by the middle of this decade. In short, our world role is affordable provided we make the needed decisions here at home.”

Lieber, who teaches government and international affairs at Georgetown, is the author of the new book, “Power and Willpower in the American Future: Why the United States is not destined to decline.” He says he wrote it to “argue against a wave of fashionable pessimism about America at home and abroad.”

“Of course we have problems — America has always had problems — but the focus on our difficulties is short sighted, exaggerated and ahistorical,” he explained. “I do not claim that America cannot decline, but that our future is a matter of the choices we make, of policy, leadership and will.”

Lieber says that America has significant advantages that place it in a great position to make the 21st century another American century.

“Despite problems, the breadth and depth of our economy and financial markets remain unmatched,” he said.

“Our advantages include our high technology, scientific base, research and development, great universities, competitiveness and entrepreneurship. Our military forces and power projection remain unmatched. Our natural resource base, including an extraordinary renaissance in domestic natural gas and oil production, provides a tremendous asset for our economy, employment and competitiveness. Our population of 313 million is the world’s third largest, and we still have a relatively favorable birthrate. Many of the world’s best and brightest seek to come here to make their lives and careers. Our institutions of liberty and the rule of law are fundamental elements in that attraction. And America’s extraordinary flexibility and adaptability are unparalleled by any large country.”

But in order to remain atop the world stage, America has to have the willpower to overcome some of the challenges it faces, Lieber argues.

“We must find a way to cope with the enormous annual budget deficits, growing debt and mounting costs of entitlements and health care,” Lieber explained.

“We need tax reform and immigration reform. And we must make optimal use of our extraordinary energy resources by focusing not on what is fashionable, but on what is effective.”

Read below TheDC’s full interview with Lieber about his new book, what he thinks of China’s rise and why some like to claim that America is declining:

Why did you write the book?
I wrote this book to argue against a wave of fashionable pessimism about America at home and abroad. Of course we have problems – America has always had problems – but the focus on our difficulties is short sighted, exaggerated and ahistorical. Declinists downplay our enormous underlying strengths as well as the way in which America has managed to overcome successive crisis ever since the late 18th century. The heart of my argument can be found in the book’s subtitle, “Why the U.S. Is Not Destined to Decline.” I do not claim that America cannot decline, but that our future is a matter of the choices we make, of policy, leadership and will.
Why are academics and purported foreign policy experts so fascinated with the theory that America is declining and China is rising?

For those who are uncomfortable with U.S. power and leadership, or with the characteristic rough and tumble of American politics, decline is something to be welcomed. Others simply exaggerate China’s remarkable — but unsustainable — growth trajectory far into the future and downplay the reasons this rate cannot be sustained. For still others, China’s rise is a rebuke to the U.S. for following policies with which they disagree.

Haven’t we heard this declinist song before?

Yes! Since the 1950s there have been repeated waves of declinist pessimism. For example, following the Soviets’ launch of Sputnik in 1957, then in 1973-74 after the Yom Kippur War and the first oil shock, again in the mid-1970s after the withdrawal from Vietnam, at the end of that decade with the Soviets making major inroads in the Third World and the U.S. suffering from severe recession and inflation, and yet again around 1987 when it appeared that Japan would overtake us. That was when Paul Kennedy published his bestseller on “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers,” with the not so subtle message that America was likely to recapitulate the cycle of rise and decline that Great Britain had experienced.

Explain the concept of “Will versus Wallet” in determining America’s destiny.

Those terms originated a quarter century ago with Joseph Nye at Harvard. “Wallet” refers to the material strengths of the United States. But the declinist narrative overstates our material weaknesses. Despite current problems of debt and deficit, of rising health care and entitlement costs, and in restoring strong growth and employment rates, the U.S. still retains unique strengths across all the dimensions by which power is measured. The real key concerns “will” or “willpower” —  i.e., we have the ability to make the right decisions to avoid decline at home and abroad.
What advantages does America have compared to other nations who are supposedly on the rise to take its place?
Despite problems, the breadth and depth of our economy and financial markets remain unmatched. Our advantages include our high technology, scientific base, research and development, great universities, competitiveness and entrepreneurship. Our military forces and power projection remain unmatched. Our natural resource base, including an extraordinary renaissance in domestic natural gas and oil production, provides a tremendous asset for our economy, employment and competitiveness. Our population of 313 million is the world’s third largest, and we still have a relatively favorable birthrate. Many of the world’s best and brightest seek to come here to make their lives and careers. Our institutions of liberty and the rule of law are fundamental elements in that attraction. And America’s extraordinary flexibility and adaptability are unparalleled by any large country.
What are the greatest challenges facing America in keeping its place on top of the world stage?
We must find a way to cope with the enormous annual budget deficits, growing debt and mounting costs of entitlements and health care. We need tax reform and immigration reform. And we must make optimal use of our extraordinary energy resources by focusing not on what is fashionable, but on what is effective.

Declinists often suggest America is in the midst of “imperial overstretch,” which will help hasten its fall. Is that right?
Not at all. Declinists have the British Empire in mind, but 100 years ago Britain had already been overtaken in population, steel production, military spending and GDP by the U.S. and Germany. Yet, unlike Britain, the U.S. still maintains an enormous lead over other possible competitors. At market engage rates (the comparative indicator preferred by the International Monetary Fund), the U.S. GDP this year is exactly twice the size of China’s. As for “overstretch,” we managed to maintain the world’s most advanced and capable military (including a volunteer army), fight two wars plus a global war on terror, and yet at the peak last year we spent just 5 percent of GDP on defense — a figure lower than the average during any of the Cold War years.  The percentage is already on the way down, toward less than 4 percent by the middle of this decade. In short, our world role is affordable provided we make the needed decisions here at home.
What policies should policy makers put in place to help ensure another American century?
Develop long-term solutions to make sustainable our entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veteran’s benefits). Reform tax and immigration policies. Bring federal spending more closely into alignment with revenues. This means reducing annual deficits to no more than 3 percent, the average from 1960 to 2007. Make effective use of our domestic energy resources, including natural gas, oil, nuclear power, hydroelectricity and – where practical and cost efficient – solar and wind power, along with sensible energy efficiency measures.

In addition, tort reform would help significantly in managing health costs. It is scandalous that the Obamacare legislation neglected this. Also welcome would be reductions in excessive bureaucracy and regulation.

Sometimes those predicting American decline treat China as if it is on an unalterable upward trajectory. What major obstacles does China have to overcome in its rise?
China’s export-led growth model is unsustainable. It has a dangerous real estate bubble. It suffers from disastrous pollution of its air, water and food chain.  Massive corruption and abuse of power are deeply resented. By some estimates, China had well over 100,000 civil disturbances last year. The model of state capitalism is not likely to be agile or effective as China becomes increasingly developed. Most important, rule by a Communist Party dictatorship will sooner or later become unsustainable.
How big of an obstacle to China’s rise is its low birthrate?
China’s one-child policy means that China will grow old before it grows rich. Over the next two decades, China’s demography becomes increasingly unfavorable as vast numbers of people retire while the proportion of those in the active work force declines.

PREMIUM ARTICLE: Subscribe To Keep Reading

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign Up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
BENEFITS READERS PASS PATRIOTS FOUNDERS
Daily and Breaking Newsletters
Daily Caller Shows
Ad Free Experience
Exclusive Articles
Custom Newsletters
Editor Daily Rundown
Behind The Scenes Coverage
Award Winning Documentaries
Patriot War Room
Patriot Live Chat
Exclusive Events
Gold Membership Card
Tucker Mug

What does Founders Club include?

Tucker Mug and Membership Card
Founders

Readers,

Instead of sucking up to the political and corporate powers that dominate America, The Daily Caller is fighting for you — our readers. We humbly ask you to consider joining us in this fight.

Now that millions of readers are rejecting the increasingly biased and even corrupt corporate media and joining us daily, there are powerful forces lined up to stop us: the old guard of the news media hopes to marginalize us; the big corporate ad agencies want to deprive us of revenue and put us out of business; senators threaten to have our reporters arrested for asking simple questions; the big tech platforms want to limit our ability to communicate with you; and the political party establishments feel threatened by our independence.

We don't complain -- we can't stand complainers -- but we do call it how we see it. We have a fight on our hands, and it's intense. We need your help to smash through the big tech, big media and big government blockade.

We're the insurgent outsiders for a reason: our deep-dive investigations hold the powerful to account. Our original videos undermine their narratives on a daily basis. Even our insistence on having fun infuriates them -- because we won’t bend the knee to political correctness.

One reason we stand apart is because we are not afraid to say we love America. We love her with every fiber of our being, and we think she's worth saving from today’s craziness.

Help us save her.

A second reason we stand out is the sheer number of honest responsible reporters we have helped train. We have trained so many solid reporters that they now hold prominent positions at publications across the political spectrum. Hear a rare reasonable voice at a place like CNN? There’s a good chance they were trained at Daily Caller. Same goes for the numerous Daily Caller alumni dominating the news coverage at outlets such as Fox News, Newsmax, Daily Wire and many others.

Simply put, America needs solid reporters fighting to tell the truth or we will never have honest elections or a fair system. We are working tirelessly to make that happen and we are making a difference.

Since 2010, The Daily Caller has grown immensely. We're in the halls of Congress. We're in the Oval Office. And we're in up to 20 million homes every single month. That's 20 million Americans like you who are impossible to ignore.

We can overcome the forces lined up against all of us. This is an important mission but we can’t do it unless you — the everyday Americans forgotten by the establishment — have our back.

Please consider becoming a Daily Caller Patriot today, and help us keep doing work that holds politicians, corporations and other leaders accountable. Help us thumb our noses at political correctness. Help us train a new generation of news reporters who will actually tell the truth. And help us remind Americans everywhere that there are millions of us who remain clear-eyed about our country's greatness.

In return for membership, Daily Caller Patriots will be able to read The Daily Caller without any of the ads that we have long used to support our mission. We know the ads drive you crazy. They drive us crazy too. But we need revenue to keep the fight going. If you join us, we will cut out the ads for you and put every Lincoln-headed cent we earn into amplifying our voice, training even more solid reporters, and giving you the ad-free experience and lightning fast website you deserve.

Patriots will also be eligible for Patriots Only content, newsletters, chats and live events with our reporters and editors. It's simple: welcome us into your lives, and we'll welcome you into ours.

We can save America together.

Become a Daily Caller Patriot today.

Signature

Neil Patel