If you’re wondering what the possible political and economic upshots of the November elections and the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on Obamacare might be, health care intelligence company Leavitt Partners has created an interactive “Health Reform Bracketology” just for you.
“Every strategic plan has some assumptions about what will happen generally that drives their decisions,” said Brett Graham, a partner at Leavitt Partners who specializes in health insurance exchanges. “The big two questions today… are what does the Supreme Court do, and the second is what happens in the November election.”
Users of the interactive ‘Bracketology’ are prompted to decide whether they think Obamacare will be upheld completely, struck down completely or survive despite losing the individual mandate. Then, users input their guesses as to the big winners of the 2012 election. For example, users can pair a Republican-controlled Congress with an Obama White House.
“We think some outcomes are more probable than others, and so really you had to be prepared for probably two or three,” Graham said.
Based on user choices, the tool employs “applied analysis by Leavitt Partners of the implications to Medicaid, Medicare, insurance reform, premium subsidies, health insurance exchanges, delivery reform and future legislative action,” according to Leavitt Partners’ website.
For example, if the individual mandate is overturned and the Republicans take the White House but are left with a split Congress, Leavitt Partners predicts a variety of political and economic implications. Republicans and Democrats would be unable to agree on an alternative to the individual mandate, according to the tool, and Republicans would attempt to reform Medicare through a hotly contested Medicare exchange.
“So, when you add all [the different variables] up I think we get the number, there’s 8,192 different scenarios,” Graham said. “Of all those possibilities ,some are very remote, and some are more likely, and you really have to focus on probably about half a dozen, and that’s what the bracketology narrows it down to.”
The analysis tool assumes that, if Republicans win the White House, the economy has stalled and the country is sliding back into recession. If the Democrats keep the presidency, the tool takes as a given that economic recovery has remained constant or even quickened. Also, the tool assumes that the majority of state governors will be Republican.
“It’s been a way for us to be able to engage people and organize the discussion and the thought in a way that makes it productive as opposed to everyone throwing out what if, what if, what if, and not really getting anything,” Graham said.
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