Republicans have a 67 percent chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate, The New York Times reported Monday.
That’s the highest percentage the paper’s election forecast model has given Republicans so far this cycle. This is because of new polling showing Iowa Republican Joni Ernst breaking away from the Democrat in the race.
“Recent polling suggests that Joni Ernst may be pulling ahead in the Senate race in Iowa,” the paper reported. “While [Times website] The Upshot still classifies that race as a tossup, the Democrats’ path to retaining the Senate becomes very challenging if Iowa goes to the Republicans. As a result, the Upshot Senate model now gives the Republicans a 67 percent chance of retaking the Senate, matching their highest number to date.”
Over the weekend, the Des Moines Register published the results of a poll showing Ernst ahead of Iowa Democrat Bruce Braley by six points.
Republicans need to flip six Senate seats from Democratic to Republican control in November, while holding on to all previously held seats, to retake the chamber.
According to Real Clear Politics, current polling shows Republicans flipping eight Senate seats — Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
But in Kansas, polling shows the independent candidate defeating the Republican incumbent. That would be a net change of seven seats for Republicans.