Writing about Tuesday night’s midterm blowouts, Nate Silver concedes “the polls were skewed toward Democrats.”
Not if you read The Daily Caller. While Virginia’s Senate race shocked political observers last night, it came as little surprise to TheDC’s readers, who were expecting a tighter race.
In some polls, Republican Ed Gillespie had been down by double-digits to incumbent Sen. Mark Warner. The conventional wisdom was that he wouldn’t come anywhere close to winning.
But on October 30, The Daily Caller’s Alex Pappas published a story, titled: “Exclusive: Poll Shows Ed Gillespie Down Just 4 Points In Virginia.”
The survey, conducted by Vox Populi, was roundly mocked by snarky members of the Twitter punditocracy:
As I write this, the Virginia race is still considered too close to call. (And, showing that they’re good sports, Weigel and Stein have both offered to buy Pappas a beer for the mistake.)
But that’s not the only example of TheDC reporting on incredible midterm developments — before anyone else.
In another “stunning upset,” Republican Larry Hogan defeated Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown in Maryland’s gubernatorial race. On October 27, TheDC’s Derek Hunter exclusively reported that “A soon to be released poll by Gonzales Research, leaked to The Daily Caller, shows the Maryland gubernatorial race to be extremely close – only 2 points, 46 to 44, separate Democratic Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown and Republican small businessman Larry Hogan.”
This was a huge change in a very deep blue state. As I noted at the time, it constituted a nine point shift from the last RealClearPolitics snapshot of polls. And TheDC didn’t back off. The day before the election, Pappas penned a piece on the race, titled: “This Could Be The Most Surprising Result On Election Night.”
In a night of surprises, the Maryland gubernatorial race lived up to Pappas’ hype.
But TheDC’s penchant for spotting emerging electoral trends didn’t begin with the 2014 midterms. Prior to Tuesday, one of the most shocking developments of the year was Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s primary loss. While most considered the race a settled matter, TheDC sensed trouble might be brewing.
Just days before his defeat, TheDC’s Neil Munro ran a piece, titled: “Shock Poll Shows Eric Cantor Struggling In Primary.” In his article, Munro reported that “A poll of Republican primary voters commissioned by The Daily Caller [and conducted by Vox Populi] shows that GOP Majority Leader Rep. Eric Cantor is just above 50 percent in the hard-fought race for the 7th district nomination.”
Munro continued:
For Cantor, that’s a sharp fall from 2012, when he defeated his primary opponent by 79 percent to 21 percent.
Cantor’s campaign office dismissed the poll. “We’re going to win by a much stronger margin… our internal polling shows that,” Ray Allen, Cantor’s campaign chief, told TheDC. Allen said he had not decided whether to release his own campaign’s polls.
So what’s the lesson here? While it’s predictable that some observers might be skeptical of a center-right new media outlet reporting on the results of new-ish polling firms, the conventional alternative — treating the mainstream media’s polls and analysis as gospel truth — seems dubious, at best. By ignoring (or mocking) TheDC’s reporting, some observers missed key developments in three important races this year — all of which were (ironically) taking place right under their noses — just outside the DC Metro area.
