Opinion

Israel’s Coming Arab Surge

David Benkof Contributor
Font Size:

Between now and March 17, the day of the Knesset election, followers of Israeli politics will hotly debate which party and prime minister should and will guide Israel’s next phase. But another elections story, less discussed so far, may have just as far-reaching implications for the future of Israel’s democracy, identity, and history. Most polls suggest the representation of Arab parties in the Knesset will grow from the current 11 seats to 13, although I believe the number will be even higher. But even if the apparent growth is modest, the change will matter.

The main structural difference in the 20th Knesset will be the merger of the Arab parties into one United Arab List. Previously, there were three Arab parties, representing Islamists, secularists, and communists – with three to four seats each. A united party will likely be the third largest in the Knesset, and a force to be reckoned with.

Ironically, the likely Arab surge grows out of an attempt to exclude Arab parties from the coalition altogether. Under prodding by Knesset Member Avigdor Lieberman of the far-right Yisrael Beitenu party, the Knesset raised the threshold required for a party to enter the Knesset from three to four seats. Israel has raised the threshold periodically since the early days of the Knesset, when a party could hold even a single seat if it received enough votes. (Humorously, advocates of raising the threshold often cite “making the Israeli system more like America’s,” which means they must not have been paying attention to Washington lately.)

But the Arab parties may have the last laugh. Facing a series of corruption scandals, Lieberman’s party has fallen to 5-6 seats in the polls, which means it is in danger of falling below the threshold and out of Israeli political life altogether.

Israel’s newly united Arab party is campaigning at an unprecedented pace, which means the key is Arab turnout. In the 2013 election, 56 percent of eligible Arab voters participated (the equivalent Jewish number was 64 percent). But in municipal elections, Arab participation is massive, with turnout in various Arab towns reaching 80 to 90 percent and sometimes even higher.

So the question becomes whether Israeli Arabs can manage to get to the polls at rates closer to city elections than to previous Knesset elections. If they do, their representation in the Knesset would grow well beyond the projected 13 seats to 16 or 17 seats or even more. A party of that size could be a kingmaker and decisive influence not only on issues that closely split the Jewish vote in the Knesset, but on a host of other issues as well – including the anti-Arab “nation-state” bill that nearly passed in the last Knesset.

Would increased Arab participation in the Knesset be a disaster for Jewish Israelis? I don’t think so.

I’m a Zionist and Israeli citizen whose opinions are center-right (my Middle Eastern politics dovetail closely with those of Conservative Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper), yet I welcome more vigorous participation by Arabs in the Israeli political system. While I have written elsewhere that when forced to choose, Israel should opt for independence over democracy, right now Israel isn’t forced to choose. And if Israeli Jews wish to maintain their dominance in the Knesset, they can prioritize voter engagement and turnout just like any other group can.

The policy ramifications of an increased voice for Arabs in the Knesset could be profound. Israeli Arab leaders are likely to push for expedited negotiations to create a Palestinian state alongside Israel, of course. But economic changes that may appear mundane on the surface – like increased resources for infrastructure, water, and electric power in Arab areas – are the bread-and-butter of any government. Budgeting is a zero-sum game, and upgraded economic conditions in Arab areas could be a game-changer in Israeli society in the long term.

For too long, it’s been easy for Israeli Jews to ignore the fact that one-fifth of their fellow citizens are non-Jews with legal rights that are essentially equal. Ensuring that Arab voices receive commensurate consideration is not only a matter of justice; it can spur a Jewish renewal of passionate engagement in our own self-rule.

So supporters of Israel need to prepare for the influence of Israeli Arabs to swell later this month, but not to be afraid of it. And ethnocentric nationalists like Lieberman who have tried to silence the voices of their antagonists should be careful what they wish for.

David Benkof is Senior Political Analyst for the Daily Caller. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter (@DavidBenkof); or E-mail him at DavidBenkof@gmail.com. 

PREMIUM ARTICLE: Subscribe To Keep Reading

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign Up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
BENEFITS READERS PASS PATRIOTS FOUNDERS
Daily and Breaking Newsletters
Daily Caller Shows
Ad Free Experience
Exclusive Articles
Custom Newsletters
Editor Daily Rundown
Behind The Scenes Coverage
Award Winning Documentaries
Patriot War Room
Patriot Live Chat
Exclusive Events
Gold Membership Card
Tucker Mug

What does Founders Club include?

Tucker Mug and Membership Card
Founders

Readers,

Instead of sucking up to the political and corporate powers that dominate America, The Daily Caller is fighting for you — our readers. We humbly ask you to consider joining us in this fight.

Now that millions of readers are rejecting the increasingly biased and even corrupt corporate media and joining us daily, there are powerful forces lined up to stop us: the old guard of the news media hopes to marginalize us; the big corporate ad agencies want to deprive us of revenue and put us out of business; senators threaten to have our reporters arrested for asking simple questions; the big tech platforms want to limit our ability to communicate with you; and the political party establishments feel threatened by our independence.

We don't complain -- we can't stand complainers -- but we do call it how we see it. We have a fight on our hands, and it's intense. We need your help to smash through the big tech, big media and big government blockade.

We're the insurgent outsiders for a reason: our deep-dive investigations hold the powerful to account. Our original videos undermine their narratives on a daily basis. Even our insistence on having fun infuriates them -- because we won’t bend the knee to political correctness.

One reason we stand apart is because we are not afraid to say we love America. We love her with every fiber of our being, and we think she's worth saving from today’s craziness.

Help us save her.

A second reason we stand out is the sheer number of honest responsible reporters we have helped train. We have trained so many solid reporters that they now hold prominent positions at publications across the political spectrum. Hear a rare reasonable voice at a place like CNN? There’s a good chance they were trained at Daily Caller. Same goes for the numerous Daily Caller alumni dominating the news coverage at outlets such as Fox News, Newsmax, Daily Wire and many others.

Simply put, America needs solid reporters fighting to tell the truth or we will never have honest elections or a fair system. We are working tirelessly to make that happen and we are making a difference.

Since 2010, The Daily Caller has grown immensely. We're in the halls of Congress. We're in the Oval Office. And we're in up to 20 million homes every single month. That's 20 million Americans like you who are impossible to ignore.

We can overcome the forces lined up against all of us. This is an important mission but we can’t do it unless you — the everyday Americans forgotten by the establishment — have our back.

Please consider becoming a Daily Caller Patriot today, and help us keep doing work that holds politicians, corporations and other leaders accountable. Help us thumb our noses at political correctness. Help us train a new generation of news reporters who will actually tell the truth. And help us remind Americans everywhere that there are millions of us who remain clear-eyed about our country's greatness.

In return for membership, Daily Caller Patriots will be able to read The Daily Caller without any of the ads that we have long used to support our mission. We know the ads drive you crazy. They drive us crazy too. But we need revenue to keep the fight going. If you join us, we will cut out the ads for you and put every Lincoln-headed cent we earn into amplifying our voice, training even more solid reporters, and giving you the ad-free experience and lightning fast website you deserve.

Patriots will also be eligible for Patriots Only content, newsletters, chats and live events with our reporters and editors. It's simple: welcome us into your lives, and we'll welcome you into ours.

We can save America together.

Become a Daily Caller Patriot today.

Signature

Neil Patel