Most of the political analysts don’t understand it. They can’t figure out the tactics that Trump is using on his journey to the White House. It’s obvious to me, however.
Think about election 2016 as a courtroom case (or a business negotiation). When an attorney starts litigating the case to opposing counsel well before the trial, it’s like tipping your hand in a game of poker.
A prominent attorney once told me to stay calm, be quiet and ‘let the other side keep running their mouth.’ He added, “by the time we get to trial, I will have heard everything they have to say about you and will know exactly how to respond. You’ll watch me as I mop the floor with this attorney in the courtroom.” If the opposing party is ignorant enough to reveal their opening and closing statements in advance, it’s makes refuting their arguments much easier.
There is a large number of undecided voters this election year. Most of them inherently dislike both candidates. If Donald Trump spends all of his advertising money and uses all his assaults on Hillary Clinton prior to the debates it will prep her for the closing argument. Being unpredictable is key.
Recently on Jimmy Kimmel live, Clinton was asked “how do you prepare to debate Donald Trump?” Jokingly, she responded, “I’m here to ask for your help.” There’s a little truth in every joke. She has no idea what to expect; Neither do the American people. For that reason, it will be the most-watched debate in American history.
No matter how unfair the rules, biased the commentator or strict the venue, it will become Donald Trump’s game on September 26, 2016 at Hofstra University (for the first debate).
My prediction is that Donald Trump will unleash a full arsenal of advertising following the debate through the month of October in key battleground states that he must win (while voters are fully attentive). Given that his present cash burn-rate is a pittance of Clinton’s, combined with similar fundraising results, he will have more than enough money to overwhelm the media with his message in October.
In addition, his debate performances will be the linchpin in his journey to the White House. Everyone expects Trump to focus on policy and act presidential. If he pivots now, people will lose interest, which favors Clinton. He’s saving the ‘pivot’ until the voters are finalizing their decisions.
If the race is close in October, he could personally inject $100 million or more into his campaign. He didn’t have to make this injection in the Republican primary. Trump reserved his attack-arsenal (in the Republican Primary) for each candidate until they started to rise in the polls. Systematically, from Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio to Ted Cruz he closed the deal. Each of them had surged in the polls just before he went on the offensive and politically annihilated them.
As Trump moves more toward message and policy, he forces the Clinton campaign to become more desperate and aggressive dredging up his past. These will be tired arguments by October, rendered ineffective. Clinton’s arsenal of attacks have been exhausted way too early.
He baited her. This is no accident. Trump plays the game by his rules, distracting his opposition into defensive mode at the most critical moment: October.
I’ve described this moment of the campaign as the beginning of the third quarter, Clinton is ahead by seven points and they are already playing ‘prevent defense’ (hiding Hillary). With such a rough August, Trump should be trailing by double digits; Instead the gap is narrowing. Clinton can’t close the deal and her campaign’s only hope is a continued series of Trump fumbles.
Donald Trump wrote The Art of the Deal. It explains his strategy in this presidential race: Ask for the outrageous so that you can obtain the reasonable. Don’t tip your hand too early. Manipulate the media. Then spend every waking hour ensuring a win while your competitors are ‘off-balance.’
Political experts may not like outsiders like Trump who won’t play their typical game of “who can be the best chameleon.” But, the American people are sick of career-politicians — Even more, they love cheering for an underdog or ‘come-back king.’
If I’m wrong, then to partially quote Trump, “this will have been the biggest waste of time” in my media career covering this.
Bryan Crabtree, is a contributor to Townhall.com and host of The Bryan Crabtree Show that can be heard live on Atlanta’s Biz 1190.
