Russia recently helped facilitate the surrender of Aleppo to its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but its motives may be financial, as opposed to virtuous.
Russia’s intervention in Syria is estimated to cost approximately $4 million per day, according to data collected by IHS Jane’s. Russian military forces began bombing Syrian targets around Sept. 30. Since the beginning of its relentless bombing campaign, Russia spent approximately $1.84 billion.
The total defense budget for 2016 of the Russian Federation was approximately $50 billion, meaning that the Kremlin spent an astonishing 3.6 percent a year on Syria alone. Though the percentage may seem relatively small, for Russia, it is unsustainable.
Most of any country’s defense budget is already committed; money is allotted to acquisitions, recruitment, development and up-keep. A standing army, even a small contingent like the Russian force in Syria, requires pay, provisions and needs to be properly outfitted. The original IHS Jane’s figures were collected in October, 2015, not long after Russia began its intervention. At the time, the figures were considered conservative, and Russia periodically increased its strikes since that time. The actual price tag could be much higher.
Additionally, Syria is not Russia’s only current theater of war; the Kremlin also continues to sponsor the ongoing civil war in eastern Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March, 2014, added another significant expense.
Both the Ukrainian and Syrian theaters are a drain on the Kremlin’s coffers, and the Syrian issue is not nearly as immediate a concern to Russian President Vladimir Putin as securing Russia’s place in Europe. Securing a victory in Syria as quickly as possible therefore makes fiscal sense. It also supports Putin’s desire to be seen as an effective international leader.
Neither conflict appears to have an end in sight, but that may not be necessary for Russia. Assad, once thought to be on the verge of defeat in 2015, is now secure in his position thanks to Russian and Iranian support.
“Russian defense planners are realizing that a military solution would likely require years of additional intervention,” said global intelligence company Stratfor in a report Wednesday. “But years of further involvement in Syria would erode the current perception of Russian military effectiveness and could embroil Moscow in a Middle Eastern quagmire not unlike the United States’ situation in Iraq.”
“Russia is looking for a way out.”
The Kremlin took its first steps toward its Syrian exit after securing the surrender of Aleppo in December. While the civil war is far from over, Aleppo represented the largest rebel bastion and, therefore, a major loss. Russia also effectively ousted the U.S. from future diplomatic talks concerning the Syrian problem, having excluded Secretary of State John Kerry from a recent meeting with Iran and Turkey. A Russian exit from Syria at the present time would save money, and face, for Putin and his allies.
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