Elections

DeSantis Leads Trump In Hypothetical 2024 Matchup: POLL

(Scott Olson/Getty Images) (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Michael Ginsberg Congressional Reporter
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is leading former President Donald Trump among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, a poll released Wednesday shows.

DeSantis garnered 39% support in the poll of 318 likely GOP primary voters, followed by Trump with 37%. Former Vice President Mike Pence received 9% support, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley garnered 6%. No other candidate mentioned in the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire from June 16-20, received more than 1% support. The poll had a margin of error of 5.5%, meaning that DeSantis and Trump were effectively tied.

DeSantis will likely run in the 2024 primaries, although he has said that he is solely focusing on winning re-election in November. Several straw polls have also found the Florida governor leading a hypothetical matchup with Trump. The University of New Hampshire conducted a similar poll in October 2021. That survey found Trump with 43% support and DeSantis with 18%. (RELATED: ‘I Think I Would Win,’ Trump Says Of Potential DeSantis Matchup)

Trump slipping in preprimary polls is part of a typical pattern,UNH Survey Center director Andrew Smith said in a statement accompanying the poll. A partys losing candidate in the prior electon is typically the bestknown person in their party. As the primary gets closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.

The most recent New Hampshire poll also found that DeSantis would match up better against President Joe Biden. That portion of the poll, which included 845 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.4%, found DeSantis with 47% support and Biden with 46%. In a hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, Biden polled at 50% support and Trump held 43%. Biden defeated Trump in the state during the 2020 election, 53-45.

Trump won the New Hampshire primary with 35% support on his way to the GOP nomination in 2016. The state has held the first election in the primary calendar since 1920, and is the second contest on the calendar after the Iowa caucuses.