Inflation Predictions Reach All Time High, New York Federal Reserve Says

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Sarah Wilder Social Issues Reporter
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Consumer expectations for inflation are at an all time high, according to a survey from The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Monday.

Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations are at 6.8%, up from 6.6% in May, the highest rate since the New York Fed starting conducting this survey in 2013. Expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will increase in a year hit its highest level since April 2020, increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 40.4%, according to the survey.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations, “captures respondents’ expectations for inflation, job prospects, and earnings growth, among other topics,” according to the New York Fed. (RELATED: Costco Increases Prices On Two Food Staples)

The New York Fed surveys a rotating panel of 1,300 households heads. The survey allows for observing the change in expectations for the same group of individuals over time.

Consumers surveyed expected prices in a year to increase by 0.1% for gas, rent, medical care, and college education. Consumers expected food prices to decrease by 0.1%, according to the survey. Expectations for inflation in three years decreased by 0.3%.

Consumers said the probability of missing a debt payment in the next three months was 11.3%, up by 0.2% and its highest rate since May 2020, the survey noted.