Democratic Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan’s defeat of Republican Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro on Tuesday was largely seen as a foreshadowing of a midterm blue wave, but only a small fraction of the Democrat base turned out to hand Ryan his victory.
Less than three months before the November midterms, Ryan was elected to replace former Democratic New York Rep. Antonio Delgado, who stepped down to serve as lieutenant governor, in a special election. In November, voters in New York’s 19th district will decide between Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley. (RELATED: POLL: If Liz Cheney Ran As An Independent, She’d Take More Votes From Biden Than From Trump)
But voter turnout in the special election is significantly lower than it will likely be in November. For instance, compared to November, only 36% of the amount of voters who turned out in 2020 turned out for the special election.
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November’s likely electorate.
Here’s special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:#CA22: 37%#TX34: 14%#NE01: 38%#MN01: 32%#NY19: 36%#NY23: 23%
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022
“This isn’t to say the enviro hasn’t improved for Dems. It has. But specials can’t tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate,” election expert Dave Wasserman said of the outcomes.
As of this writing, Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, while Republicans are favored to win the House.