‘Pretty Clear Advantage’: NBC Election Expert Reveals Why Republicans Are Poised To Win In November


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NBC data expert Steve Kornacki explained why Republicans could do well in the November midterm elections during a Tuesday morning appearance on NBC’s “Today Show.”

“We talked about the economy and inflation being important issues. How about this? This is a ‘New York Times poll,’ brand new here, asking voters what’s the top issue on your mind this election? I haven’t seen it this dramatic in a poll. Add the economy and inflation together, that is 44%,” Kornacki told host Savannah Guthrie. (RELATED: ‘Biggest Advantage’: MSNBC Polling Guru Breaks Down How Republicans Could Win Big In Midterms)

“We’re getting close to half of all respondents in this poll saying that’s their top issue,” Kornaci continued. “Nothing else even cracks 10% right now. And we’ve talked about the Republicans, when it comes to the economy and inflation, having a pretty clear advantage in the polls.”


Slightly more than one in four voters, 26%, considered the economy the top issue, while 18% believed that inflation and the cost of living was the most important issue, according to the New York Times poll conducted with Siena College. In a CBS News poll, 48% of respondents said they believed Democratic policies had harmed the economy.

Kornacki then discussed the generic ballot for Congress, noting that Republicans were gaining support, citing the RealClearPolitics average. The CBS News poll showed a two-point GOP lead, while a Harvard/Harris poll showed a six-point lead for Republicans, a Trafalgar survey showed a five-point lead and a Rasmussen poll showed a seven-point lead for the GOP.

“We were here a week ago taking you through the generic ballot, and a week ago this number was inside of one point,” Kornacki said. “You had the inflation news over the last week, certainly didn’t help the Democrats, and it seems as the economy moves to center stage Republicans are improving chances here.”

Guthrie also noted that proposing solutions to the crime crisis was helping some Republican candidates, like Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.

“This is Wisconsin, one of the key Senate races, Ron Johnson, two-term Republican incumbent. He leads in the polling average over his Democratic challenger, now Johnson has been leaning heavily on crime,” Kornacki said. “Interesting poll out that came out of Wisconsin this week, they ask things differently. They basically ask are these issues important to you? That’s what’s asked here. Inflation tops the list, but look at crime. It’s close to 90%. I think also striking, abortion is under 80%. Republicans running heavily on crime, Democrats running heavily on abortion and it looks like in this Wisconsin race, crime may have more resonance than abortion.”

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