“Trump can win the primaries, but he can’t win the general election.”
Never Trumpers have made this argument in anger, and some Trumpians have offered it in sorrow. Even those who admire Donald J. Trump and yearn for his America First policies to revive this gasping nation wonder if he can cross the finish line first on Nov. 5, 2024.
Thus, Trump foes are massively frustrated, and Trump fans are hugely encouraged, that he has soared against Joe Biden. Recent polls find Trump ready to trounce Biden at the next general election. (RELATED: DANIEL MCCARTHY: Biden’s A Loser, But Dems Are Stuck With Him)
Sunday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll of 1,006 adults captured Trump at 52% and Biden at 42% among registered voters. In terms of the popular vote, such a Trump re-election margin would land almost exactly halfway between Obama’s 52.9% triumph in 2008 and Biden’s 51.3% victory in 2020.
This story’s key fact on American democracy (Trump 52% to Biden 42%) died in the darkness of paragraph 21. Indeed, the Post threw shade on its own survey. We don’t know what we’re doing, the Post’s article on this study suggested. This research was so painful to the Post that it smothered its own story in caveats and accused its survey team of incompetence.
“Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat,” the Post self-flagellated. “The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”
But the paper added, “In May, a Post-ABC survey found Trump with a six-point lead among registered voters, 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.” Empathy for Trump grows as Democrats persecute him.
Simultaneously, Biden’s popularity has slipped amid endless vacations, mounting gaffes, throbbing ethical headaches and public displays of disaffection toward such people as the 97 Maui residents whom a vicious wildfire incinerated.
No wonder Trump’s support has waxed by 3 percentage points while Biden’s has waned by 1 percentage point. Result: Trump 52%; Biden 42%.
“In the new poll, men favor Trump by 62 percent to 32 percent, a margin of 30 points,” the Post observed. “In May, Trump’s margin among men was 16 points.” So, 14 percentage-point higher approval among half the population should boost Trump by about 7%.
Meanwhile, the Post reports, “Among non-White voters, the poll finds Biden leads by nine points. In four other public polls, Biden’s lead among non-White voters ranges from 12 points to 24 points.”
In 2020, according to Edison Research’s exit poll, Biden beat Trump among Hispanics 65% to 32% (a 33% margin) and blacks 87% to 12% (a 75% shellacking.) If Biden is ahead just 24% among non-whites, he is in trouble. If Biden sunk to the Post’s 9% reported advantage among voters of color, he should crawl into his Wilmington bunker and assume the fetal position.
The popular vote is interesting, but the Electoral College counts. Yet another survey should make Trump staffers throw their MAGA hats into the air.
“Trump held a small advantage in the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan,” Reuters/Ipsos reported Sept. 15 after surveying 4,413 registered voters. “In those states, Trump led with 41% to Biden’s 35%, and 24% undecided.” If Trump secures those battlegrounds, Biden is a dead man walking.
If these two split the other 44 states as in 2016, their respective victories would follow post 2020-Census reapportionment. Texas has added two electoral votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each has gained one.
These states have lost one electoral vote each: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Ceteris paribus, Trump’s triumphs in these six swing states would transform the 45th President of the United States into America’s 47th chief executive, 312 to 226 for Biden.
By my calculations, Trump’s victory would exceed Biden’s 306 to 232 showing in 2020.
Politically, November 2024 is 10 zillion light years away. Surprises will fill that void. But right now, Donald J. Trump looks not just electable but poised for a landslide.
Deroy Murdock is a Manhattan-based Fox News Contributor.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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