A Wall Street Journal piece observed the administration was floundering in selling its approach to post-war Gaza. No wonder, as it’s built on a convenient fantasy. The heart of the fantasy is Gaza itself.
Before Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Gaza was the highly corrupt, Hamas dominated, barely functioning home to 2.1 million people. Today, it is a war zone. Though the Israelis are pulling back in places, the airstrikes continue with gusto.
Does Gaza even have a tomorrow? Doubtful. (RELATED: JD FOSTER: Biden Admin’s Anti-Trust Crusade Against Airlines Makes Zero Sense)
Satellite photographs indicate that over half the buildings in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Over 80% have been damaged in the previously heavily populated north Gaza and Gaza city where the Israeli’s have been most active. As the southern end of the strip is now receiving brutal attention, the damage count will rise.
Satellites can only reveal so much. It is almost certain the true percentage of damaged buildings is much higher. What about the public infrastructure? What is left of the water systems, the sewer systems, the electric power sources and grid? The best guess answer lies between little and nothing.
Even if a permanent ceasefire were implemented today, the vast majority of Gaza would be uninhabitable for years: no shelter, no water, no electricity, no food, no hope. As an imminent ceasefire is unlikely, the little area in Gaza capable of sustaining civil life is sure to shrink steadily.
It’s fine to talk about a post-war governing structure, especially as that’s the comfort zone for the foreign policy elites, but first one has to ask – govern whom? Gaza cannot today and will not tomorrow be able to sustain but a tiny fraction of its pre-war population. For the moment, these people are freezing, despondent, hungry prisoners of Hamas dependent on various relief organizations for survival.
Temporizing is inevitable, but the fact is much of the population needs to emigrate and soon to places like Lebanon and Turkey with some capacity to deal with them. The vaunted Arab brotherhood will soon be put to the test.
Many argue that Gazans should be allowed to go back to their homes, rubble or not. The key word there is “should” and reflects the fantasy world in which the Biden administration operates. The longer decision-makers remain stuck on should, the more the remaining Gazans will suffer.
Beyond the immediate, Gaza’s future is to remain a wasteland. Along with peace and some reasonable hope that Israeli jets won’t return, reconstruction even to a minimal standard would require hundreds of billions of dollars.
Who is going to pay for this? The Biden administration may show a little ankle, but the U.S. Congress won’t allow a dollar to be spent on Gaza reconstruction.
The Arab world will make a big show and a lot of noise, but in the end, little of note will transpire. Even the Iranians will ply their terrorism elsewhere.
They don’t really care that much about Palestinians or Gaza. Ditto for some in Europe. The Chinese will consider dipping a toe to extend their regional influence, but ultimately will abstain as the amounts involved dwarf the miniscule and transitory payoff.
That’s all about the long run. In the short- and medium-term, it would take years to organize and effect even clearing the detritus of war. Where are the Gazans to live in the meantime? Not in Gaza.
As what remains of Gaza slowly disintegrates and after nearly all its former residents emigrate, what happens next? Many will stay in refugee camps, possibly for years.
Some may try for an increasingly anti-immigrant Europe. But many will trek to southern Lebanon to align with Hezbollah or the West Bank and a rebuilding Hamas.
It’s not hard to see what happens next.
JD Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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