- Time is running out for President Joe Biden to shore up the support from key voting blocs that backed him by large margins in swing states last cycle.
- Biden’s margins with independents, young individuals, black voters and Hispanics are either smaller than they were in 2020, or Trump is now leading among some groups, according to recent polling in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
- “And so just the election coming down to the narrative of one of these guys is strong enough to handle your problems and one isn’t — I think that cuts across so many demographics, age groups, geography,” Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
President Joe Biden is losing support among key voting demographics in crucial battleground states as a November matchup with former President Donald Trump draws nearer, according to recent polling data.
Biden has been receiving dismal poll numbers for months among crucial voting blocs that were key to his 2020 election, and he largely continues to lag behind Trump in national and swing-state surveys. Recent polls from Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina show that Biden’s margins with independents, young individuals, black voters and Hispanics are either smaller than they were last cycle, or Trump is now leading among some groups.
“In close states, every vote matters. Usually, independents are the ballgame,” Ron Faucheux, president of nonpartisan polling firm Clarus Research Group, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “These state polls reflect Biden’s weaknesses in national polling.” (RELATED: Poll After Poll Shows Voters Felt Way Better Off Under Trump Than Biden)
An Arizona Emerson College survey released Wednesday found Trump leading Biden 53% to 47% among independents. The same pollster indicated Trump was ahead by six points with the group in Nevada, as well as eight points in Pennsylvania.
A Marist survey published on Wednesday for North Carolina suggested Trump was beating Biden 52% to 46% among independents. The former president is also four points ahead of Biden with the voting bloc in Michigan, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released March 14.
A Georgia Marist poll published on Wednesday found Biden leading Trump by only one point among independents. In Wisconsin, the president has a mere two-point lead with the group, according to an Emerson College survey released Thursday.
In 2020, Biden led Trump among independents by four points in North Carolina, six points in Nevada and Michigan, eight points in Pennsylvania, nine points in Arizona and Georgia, and 12 points in Wisconsin.
Trump has also led Biden among youth voters in Georgia and Michigan, while the former president trails with a smaller margin than 2020 in North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin, according to recent polling.
The aforementioned polls found Trump ahead with 18-to-29-year-olds by five points in Georgia, as well as by five points among those under 35 in Michigan. In 2020, Biden led Trump among those aged 18 to 29 by 13 points in Georgia and 24 points in Michigan.
Trump is only down by one point among those aged 18 to 29 in North Carolina, as well as by about five points in Wisconsin, nine points in Arizona and 12 points in Nevada. Biden led Trump by 17 points in North Carolina, 23 points in Wisconsin, 31 points in Arizona and 30 points in Nevada last cycle.
Veteran Republican strategist Mark Weaver argued that the polling shows Biden is “in more re-election trouble than any president since Jimmy Carter.”
“These numbers suggest Joe Biden will be shuffling through a dark room filled with political mousetraps and he’s likely to trip most of them between now and November,” Weaver told the DCNF. “If he leans too far toward Hamas supporters, he’ll lose more independents and many Jewish voters. If he stands firmly with Israel, he’ll anger Muslim voters in Michigan and Minnesota and lose more young voters. If he curries more favor with Antifa and Black Lives Matter activists, he’ll lose older voters and key heartland regions like his boyhood home of Scranton, Pennsylvania.”
“He starts out unpopular with many voting groups that are usually Blue friendly or Blue curious and there are many more ways to lose those voters than win them,” Weaver added.
ROME, GEORGIA – MARCH 09: Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the stage a the conclusion of a campaign rally at the Forum River Center. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
While Biden still has a significant lead over Trump among the black community, his margins are smaller than last cycle in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada, according to the polls.
The surveys show the president is ahead with the voting bloc by 68% to 19% in Michigan, 69% to 31% in Pennsylvania, 71% to 29% in Wisconsin, 75% to 24% in Georgia, 77% to 23% in Nevada and 79% to 20% in North Carolina.
In 2020, Biden led Trump among black voters 92% to 8% in Wisconsin, as well as 92% to 7% in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Black voters also backed Biden by 88% to 11% in Georgia and 80% to 18% in Nevada.
“In most southern states, a Republican candidate winning 15 to 20 percent of the Black vote statewide is guaranteed a majority overall,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “There is just no plausible route to a victory for a Democrat losing that share of Black votes.”
Biden’s numbers have also dampened among Hispanic voters in some of the swing states’ polling, particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada.
The president held a 56% to 45% lead among the voting bloc in the Pennsylvania poll, but he previously won Hispanics over by 42 points in the battleground state last cycle. Similarly, Biden was ahead of Trump by only four points in the survey for Wisconsin, where the group previously backed the president by 23 points.
In Nevada, where Biden secured the group by 26 points in 2020, the survey found him ahead by only four points against Trump.
Biden’s “only real opportunity to change course is for the economy to recover in a way that is tangible to working class voters,” McHenry told the DCNF.
Scott Jennings, a GOP strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, believes Biden’s biggest hurdle is voters viewing him as “too weak” to solve issues like the economy, foreign affairs and more in comparison to Trump.
“I don’t see him doing things that are going to change that perception. In fact, I see him doing things that make it worse,” Jennings told the DCNF. “And so just the election coming down to the narrative of one of these guys is strong enough to handle your problems and one isn’t — I think that cuts across so many demographics, age groups, geography. That perception, once that takes hold, it’s hard to reverse it. And I think they’re kind of stuck in that vortex right now.”
Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, but lost them all to Biden the following election. The former president secured North Carolina both cycles, while the Democrats did the same in Nevada.
Biden is currently down in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages for all of the swing states, and hasn’t led Trump nationally since early September 2023.
The two secured enough delegates for their respective party nominations after contests on March 12, and are heading toward a rematch that’s just eight months away.
Neither Biden nor Trump’s campaign responded to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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