Republicans and conservatives in particular have been riding high as polls have shown independents moving away from the Democrats and toward them. This has especially been true since Sen. Scott Brown’s win last month in Massachusetts, in a seat once thought unwinnable for a Republican.

This newfound pride could be seen last week at CPAC where countless speakers pronounced that Barack Obama would be a one-term president and Republicans would recapture Congress this fall.

But Republicans should not take anything as a given due to the volatility of the American electorate.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) says he spent six months last year trying to tell Republicans things were not as bleak as they had thought, but he warns things might not be as good as they think they are now, and conservatives should avoid the temptation to hubris.

History has been filled with cases where movements have peaked too soon or where things do not turn out as planned for political campaigns. Eight months remain between now and the midterm elections, and a lot can happen between now and then that could potentially throw a wrench into current projections.

Nothing should be taken for granted because a handful of races could determine control of Congress. There isn’t any doubt Republicans will make gains this year, but many variables remain in play such as the economy and the degree of voter engagement.

If employment numbers start coming back to life in the next several months, it could abate some of the anger and reduce damage suffered by the Democrats.

If anger against Democrats lessens between now and Election Day, Republicans could see a more modest seat pickup akin to what they received in 1980 when they won 35 seats during Ronald Reagan’s landslide instead of something akin to their 54-seat pickup in 1994 when they won the majority. But then again anything is possible.

A 35-seat gain in the House would leave Republicans with 213 seats in the House, just five shy of what they would need for the majority. Voter turnout will be the key to victory.

“We need to be confident but realistic,” said Brent Bozell, president of the Media Research Center. “The Democrats are still extraordinarily powerful, and they play for keeps.”

Bozell said Democrats will do everything they can to retain their majorities and keep power, and Republicans should not take anything for granted.

The past year has shown just how volatile the electorate can be. Twelve months ago, conservatives were dejected, and Republicans were trailing badly, but the Democrats’ arrogance has served to alienate the same people who elected them.

As a result, Republicans are leading by default. Pollster Scott Rasmussen has said voters are more anti-incumbent at this point than pro-Republican because voters have largely become free agents who don’t trust either party.

Consequently, if voters start seeing Republicans as being just as arrogant as the Democrats, it cause certain voters to stay home, which could be a decisive factor to their detriment in close elections.

“The particular form of overconfidence that they must avoid is arrogance,” said Let Freedom Ring President Colin Hanna. “The voters’ rejection of arrogance is the driving force behind everything from the earliest protests of the bank bailouts to the Scott Brown election—and it can topple arrogant Republicans just as easily as arrogant Democrats.

“We shouldn’t be optimistic or pessimistic. We should instead be transparent, accountable and humble. The public is eager for true public servants, not a new set of egotists with a different party label.”

The contested 2000 presidential election shows just how crucial voter turnout can be because had 1,000 more Democrats turned out in Florida, we would have had four to eight years of President Al Gore instead of President George W. Bush.

Also, had 500,000 more Republicans shown up at the polls to vote for Bush, he would have narrowly won the popular vote as well as the electoral vote.

Talk about Obama being a one-term president is a bit premature at this point, considering the fact no one knows if the economy will turnaround or if he will take a page out of Bill Clinton’s playbook and move to the center should the voters chasten him in this fall’s elections.

In 1982, Ronald Reagan suffered from poll ratings that hovered around 50 percent, and pundits spoke openly about him becoming a one-term president, either by choice or through electoral defeat in 1984.

“The man in the White House can’t cop. Looks like we have another one-term president,” Dallas Times-Herald columnist Paul West wrote in an April 12, 1982, column. “The budget impasse with Congress and recession are feeding speculation—including some in the West Wing, where the president’s top aides work—about whether President Reagan will seek another term.”

Yet Reagan handily came back and beat Walter Mondale, winning 49 of the 50 states and 525 electoral votes.

Republicans and pundits similarly predicted Bill Clinton would be a one-term president in the wake of his health care debacle, yet he went on to defeat Bob Dole for re-election.

Similar speculation currently greets Obama, as was evidenced in former Vice President Dick Cheney’s CPAC speech last week when he said he would be a one-term president. And if history offers any commentary, it is that premature speculation is often unwise.

If Democrats lose big this fall and Obama moves to the center following the midterm elections the way Clinton did and Republicans run a candidate similar to Bob Dole in 2012, it could have the same end result as in 1996.

Conservatives should be confident about their chances, just not overconfident because the latter breeds complacency and likely defeat. It is always far better to overestimate your opponent’s chances and come out ahead than underestimate them and end up behind.

There is an old saying Republicans should heed: “Pride comes before the fall.” Humility wins, egotism loses.

John Rossomando is a journalist whose work has been featured in numerous publications such as CNSNews.com, Newsmax and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award in 2008 for his reporting.