CA-36 closer than Kos pretends?

Mickey Kaus Columnist
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Not in the bank: Doesn’t this Daily Kos poll auger ill for Democrat Janice Hahn in today’s special election to fill Jane Harman’s congressional seat, a race in which she’s running against Republican Craig Huey? Kos‘ David Nir emails:

It’s also worth noting that half of our sample says they’ve already voted; those who plan on voting on election day favor Hahn by a ten-point margin, making any last-minute get-out-the-vote operations that much more daunting for Republicans.

That’s one way of putting it. Another way is to say that going into today Hahn had a bigger lead (10 points) among those who hadn’t yet voted than among those who had (where she only leads by 5 points).

The problem with leading among those who haven’t voted is that they haven’t voted. They might not show up. And if they don’t show up, Huey has a relatively small margin to make up (assuming the poll is accurate). …

We will know soon enough (polls close at 8 Pacific time).

11:49 PM Update: Hahn by 9 in first official pass. Kos poll shockingly accurate (though numbers may change a bit when more ballots are counted).

Mickey Kaus