Picture President Obama as a one-term president. Should a GOP candidate defeat him next year, the United States will not be the only world power facing a leadership transition in early 2013.
Just as the Republicans are getting settled into the White House, China will undergo its own historic transition as the communist state’s 10-year leader, Hu Jintao, steps down and passes the levers of power to his successor.
A determined Republican in the White House alongside a fresh regime in Beijing would be a historic opportunity. Imagine: the world’s two most dynamic economies, both subject to major political and policy shifts amid a slow global economy, at the same time.
These near-simultaneous Two Transitions could provide just the positive stimulus the world’s economy is looking for.
On our side of the Pacific, a GOP-controlled White House will guarantee a strong pro-business agenda. Chinese leaders respected the U.S.’s economic leadership during the Bush Administration because it treated the Asian powerhouse as a business partner; a revival of that approach in Washington will be welcome news there.
In turn, Chinese leaders will be selecting a new president. Xi Jinping, the current vice president, will most likely get the job. Little is known about the real political beliefs among leaders of China’s communist apparatus, but there is reason to believe Jinping will be a supporter of an economic reform agenda.
As the former communist chief of Shanghai, the country’s most liberalized economic center, Jinping has experienced economic growth firsthand, and he understands how to foster it. This runs in his family: Jinping’s father implemented China’s first “special economic zone.” We can expect a Jinping-led China to appoint leaders with similar beliefs to key posts all across the country.
Think of the opportunities! New policies that encourage a growing middle class in China would lead to an increase in U.S. exports, as Chinese consumers exercise more spending power. This in turn would pave the way for a global economic rebound, as the world’s largest economy (ours) reacts to a revved up demand for American goods.
Back in Washington, putting our own fiscal and budgetary house in order would relieve lingering concerns about Chinese-held U.S. debt. And further free-trade developments in the U.S. could spark more economic activity.
A new Chinese regime in 2013 could end Beijing’s long-standing policy of currency manipulation, providing yet another boon to the global recovery. It might even further encourage Chinese businessmen to open up shop in the United States.
This whole scenario, however, has the potential to devolve into a serious setback. The new regimes will both be mindful of support at home, and political sensitivities could get in the way of real progress.
Investors around the globe may be spooked by uncertainties that will come along with the Two Transitions. Republicans, fueled by populist or nationalist sentiments, could certainly demonize China even more than the current administration has.
On the other side of the equation, a new Chinese president may feel pressured to take a hard stance on any aggression in the Chinese sphere of influence, which would force the U.S. to respond.
But all in all, amid the global economic crisis the number of reasons for cooperation dwarfs those for hostility.
Heading into next November, there’s no doubt that the eventual Republican nominee will make the case that he (or she) is best suited to deal with the new incoming Chinese regime. In many ways that Republican will be right. A new Chinese government is coming in 2013 whether we wish it or not. Every policymaker, every business leader, and every voter needs to keep that in mind.
Andrew Clark, a former writer for Politics Daily, is a graduate student at The George Washington University, studying media and public affairs. You can follow him on Twitter @AndrewHClark.