Opinion

Bernanke succumbs to Potomac Fever

William F. Shughart II Research Director, Independent Institute
Font Size:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke claims to be a student of the policy failures that deepened and prolonged the Great Depression. Yet, as he pushes forward with one failed stimulus after another, he seems to ignore the lessons of history — hoping, perhaps, that this time the story will end differently.

Like Joseph Stiglitz, who criticized the minimum wage in a 1993 economics textbook but changed his tune after being appointed to President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers that year, Bernanke seems to be the victim of “Potomac Fever,” a malady that causes politicians and policymakers to bend their views when they assume power.

By failing to acknowledge the lessons of history, Bernanke seems to be as clueless about the consequences of the Fed’s monetary policies as President Obama is about the effects of the administration’s fiscal policies. So, despite the evidence, they unthinkingly plow ahead.

Bernanke’s latest initiative to jump-start the struggling economy was announced in late September. The “new” strategy, however, is not new: It’s a replay of something tried in the early 1960s called Operation Twist, which was designed to reduce long-term interest rates in the hope that it would encourage private businesses to invest in new plant and equipment, thereby creating jobs, and encourage prospective home buyers to start buying again, reinvigorating the real estate market.

What was Bernanke thinking? As an economic historian, he must know that the first Operation Twist failed to achieve its objectives. There is no reason to believe the new version will fare any better.

Then, as now, the purpose of Operation Twist is to rotate the so-called yield curve downward. That curve, which tracks the relationship between interest rates and the terms to maturity of government securities and other debt instruments, normally slopes upward. That’s because lending or borrowing for longer periods of time exposes both sides of the transaction to greater risk. So a 10-year Treasury note will pay a higher interest rate than a one-year note.

As a result of the Fed’s “quantitative easing” measures, however, short-term interest rates are now close to zero and cannot be lowered further. The Fed has shot its bolt at that end of the yield curve.

If the yield curve can be “twisted” so long-term rates also are reduced, then long-term investment projects become relatively more attractive. If, that is, the Fed’s strategy of selling $400 billion worth of short-term securities and using the proceeds to buy longer-term securities works.

The reason Operation Twist failed in the 1960s was that, given advance notice of the Fed’s plan, investors were able to employ profitable counter-strategies to neutralize the effects. If the Fed is selling short (that is, selling its holdings of short-term bonds) and buying long (buying those with longer-term maturity dates), a knowledgeable investor can make a tidy profit by buying short and selling long. That’s because the Fed’s purchase of long-term securities will raise their prices and reduce their yields, while the selling of short-term bonds will reduce their prices and increase their yields.

As investors rearrange their portfolios to counter the Fed’s move, the term structure of interest rates will hardly budge. Long-term rates fell by only 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in the wake of the 1960s version of Operation Twist.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was 2.5 percent a year ago, 1.9 percent a month ago and 2.2 percent at the beginning of November. Chubby Checker had a larger impact on the charts.

As should be abundantly clear by now, Ben Bernanke is floundering and wants to be seen as “doing something” to avert a still-possible double-dip recession. If “Operation Twist” fails, as it likely already has, Bernanke will want to try something else, as Depression-era policymakers repeatedly did.

It should be clear by now that the Keynesian policies guiding Washington are not working. If Bernanke and company don’t acknowledge this soon, America will be doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

This will be no better for the United States than it has been for Europe.

William F. Shughart II, a senior fellow with The Independent Institute, Oakland, CA, is J. Fish Smith Professor in Public Choice at Utah State University’s Huntsman School of Business.

PREMIUM ARTICLE: Subscribe To Keep Reading

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!

Sign Up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
Sign up

By subscribing you agree to our Terms of Use

You're signed up!
BENEFITS READERS PASS PATRIOTS FOUNDERS
Daily and Breaking Newsletters
Daily Caller Shows
Ad Free Experience
Exclusive Articles
Custom Newsletters
Editor Daily Rundown
Behind The Scenes Coverage
Award Winning Documentaries
Patriot War Room
Patriot Live Chat
Exclusive Events
Gold Membership Card
Tucker Mug

What does Founders Club include?

Tucker Mug and Membership Card
Founders

Readers,

Instead of sucking up to the political and corporate powers that dominate America, The Daily Caller is fighting for you — our readers. We humbly ask you to consider joining us in this fight.

Now that millions of readers are rejecting the increasingly biased and even corrupt corporate media and joining us daily, there are powerful forces lined up to stop us: the old guard of the news media hopes to marginalize us; the big corporate ad agencies want to deprive us of revenue and put us out of business; senators threaten to have our reporters arrested for asking simple questions; the big tech platforms want to limit our ability to communicate with you; and the political party establishments feel threatened by our independence.

We don't complain -- we can't stand complainers -- but we do call it how we see it. We have a fight on our hands, and it's intense. We need your help to smash through the big tech, big media and big government blockade.

We're the insurgent outsiders for a reason: our deep-dive investigations hold the powerful to account. Our original videos undermine their narratives on a daily basis. Even our insistence on having fun infuriates them -- because we won’t bend the knee to political correctness.

One reason we stand apart is because we are not afraid to say we love America. We love her with every fiber of our being, and we think she's worth saving from today’s craziness.

Help us save her.

A second reason we stand out is the sheer number of honest responsible reporters we have helped train. We have trained so many solid reporters that they now hold prominent positions at publications across the political spectrum. Hear a rare reasonable voice at a place like CNN? There’s a good chance they were trained at Daily Caller. Same goes for the numerous Daily Caller alumni dominating the news coverage at outlets such as Fox News, Newsmax, Daily Wire and many others.

Simply put, America needs solid reporters fighting to tell the truth or we will never have honest elections or a fair system. We are working tirelessly to make that happen and we are making a difference.

Since 2010, The Daily Caller has grown immensely. We're in the halls of Congress. We're in the Oval Office. And we're in up to 20 million homes every single month. That's 20 million Americans like you who are impossible to ignore.

We can overcome the forces lined up against all of us. This is an important mission but we can’t do it unless you — the everyday Americans forgotten by the establishment — have our back.

Please consider becoming a Daily Caller Patriot today, and help us keep doing work that holds politicians, corporations and other leaders accountable. Help us thumb our noses at political correctness. Help us train a new generation of news reporters who will actually tell the truth. And help us remind Americans everywhere that there are millions of us who remain clear-eyed about our country's greatness.

In return for membership, Daily Caller Patriots will be able to read The Daily Caller without any of the ads that we have long used to support our mission. We know the ads drive you crazy. They drive us crazy too. But we need revenue to keep the fight going. If you join us, we will cut out the ads for you and put every Lincoln-headed cent we earn into amplifying our voice, training even more solid reporters, and giving you the ad-free experience and lightning fast website you deserve.

Patriots will also be eligible for Patriots Only content, newsletters, chats and live events with our reporters and editors. It's simple: welcome us into your lives, and we'll welcome you into ours.

We can save America together.

Become a Daily Caller Patriot today.

Signature

Neil Patel