MERRIMACK, N.H. — Ron Paul is polling in second place in New Hampshire, but his campaign schedule suggests that the Texas congressman might not quite be in the race to win it.
By the time of Saturday night’s primary debate in New Hampshire, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is slated to have held 18 campaign events in New Hampshire since the Iowa caucuses, according to numbers gathered from Politico’s Daybook.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman should have 13 under his belt by then, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is scheduled to have done 10. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is supposed to have held five in New Hampshire and two in South Carolina.
Ron Paul, by contrast, is scheduled to have conducted only two events, both on Friday.
“That’s not typical behavior for someone who’s looking to move up in New Hampshire or to build on success in Iowa or to even run and place,” University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala told The Daily Caller.
“I will say he does have ads up on the air here, but obviously, you know, the week before New Hampshire there is no substitute for the candidate. … I can’t imagine a primary where the winner won from out of town.”
Some political analysts point to Paul’s age as a possible reason for his reduced schedule. (RELATED: Full coverage of Ron Paul)
“First, he’s 76. That has to make some difference,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told TheDC in an email.
“[Y]ou might consider the possibility that a 76 year old man might need a break between Iowa and NH,” postulated Linda Fowler, a government professor at New Hampshire’s Dartmouth University, in an email to TheDC.
If Paul is elected president, he would be far and away the oldest president elected in American history. Ronald Reagan, who currently holds the record of America’s oldest president, was 69 at the time of his first inauguration in 1981.
Both Scala and Sabato also argued that Paul’s schedule might suggest that the Texas congressman is less interested in winning the Republican nomination than he is in spreading his message.
“I think we are basing our conversation on the premise that it’s his first goal to be the nominee of the party and I think there are times when, and this maybe is one of them, where you can make the case that that is not what this is all about,” said Scala.
Paul’s schedule “suggests a candidate who is running to make a point and spread the message, not necessarily to get elected president,” said Sabato. “Paul might even agree with that description.”
And he really might. When asked earlier this week by ABC News’ Terry Moran if he imagined himself in the Oval Office when he lays his head on the pillow at night, Paul replied bluntly: “Not really.”
Scala was quick to note that Paul was “a fairly frequent visitor to New Hampshire” since declaring his candidacy, which Scala said makes his absence down the home stretch all the more “strange.”
“Given all that time he’s spent working on New Hampshire really and building a core of support that is now about double what it was four years ago, it is strange when you are so close not to be here or to send your son,” he said.
It is not like Paul is only a debate candidate. He has made 37 campaign stops in New Hampshire according to statistics compiled by the Washington Post and 81 in Iowa. But Paul was also absent the weekend before the Iowa caucuses.
Sabato said it is also possible that Paul is just more politically sophisticated than the other candidates
“In a way, Paul has figured out the system better than some others who think that spending endless hours shaking hands is the ticket to victory,” he said. “Most of the people whose hands are shaken don’t even vote in the GOP primary.”
Fowler argued that it may be a fool’s errand to read too much in to Paul’s limited campaign schedule.
“Paul’s candidacy has always been unorthodox,” she said, “so I don’t think you should judge his schedule by conventional standards.”
Beside the two events planned for Friday, a Wednesday email from the Paul campaign indicates that the candidate plans to hold one campaign event Sunday, three events Monday and campaign on election day. Paul’s son Rand, the junior senator from Kentucky, also plans to participate in a policy discussion at the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy on Saturday.
Paul has yet to experience any noticeable political harm from his absence. In fact, he’s actually jumped four points, to 18 percent in the Suffolk University/7 News two-day tracking poll released Thursday, placing him 10 percentage points ahead of third place contender Rick Santorum and 23 percentage points behind front-runner Mitt Romney.
Paul’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment or explanation.
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