Less than one week until election day, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker seems to be getting some much-needed breathing room in his third election in four years.
According to the latest Marquette Law School poll of likely voters, Walker has broken free from Democratic challenger Mary Burke, leading 50-43 in Marquette’s final poll before next Tuesday’s election.
In the previous Marquette poll released two weeks ago, Walker and Burke were tied at 47 percent, and the RealClearPolitics average was nearly deadlocked as well.
With the emergence of the latest poll though, Walker now leads by two points, 47.8 to 45.8, in the RCP average.
What’s leading to Walker’s surge? Base turnout.
In the previous Marquette poll, 82 percent of Republicans and 80 percent of Democrats said they were certain to vote. In the most recent poll, those numbers have tilted in favor of Walker, with 93 percent of Republicans saying they are now certain to cast a ballot, while just 82 percent of Democrats say the same.
This poll, which collected data Oct. 23-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, comes one day after President Obama appeared in Milwaukee to campaign for Burke. (RELATED: Yet Another Campaign Crowd Walks Out On Obama, This Time In Milwaukee)
In his previous two elections (2010 and 2012 recall), Walker defeated Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by 5.7 and 6.8 points, respectively.