On the heels of his plan calling for a “complete shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S., we are now on day two of Trump dominating the news cycle. The talk today has moved to worries that he might launch an independent bid.
As usual, this is a story that was stoked by Trump, himself:
A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent. https://t.co/ztP5d2ctZl
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 8, 2015
As I noted earlier on CNN’s New Day, this puts Republicans in a precarious situation. They must simultaneously make it clear that Trump does not speak for the GOP, but they must do so in a way that doesn’t permanently alienate his supporters—or push Trump into launching an independent bid.
Are these worries overwrought? Maybe. Trump has leverage, but probably not as much as some fear. As Doug Mataconis reminds us, getting your name on the ballot as an independent includes lots of logistical hurdles (such as collecting 570,000 signatures—according to one expert), and even then,
Trump would also have to deal with the existence of so-called “sore loser” laws that prevent a candidate who lost a primary bid from running for the same office in the General Election as an independent. There are laws like this on the ballot in all but four states, the exceptions are Connecticut, Iowa, New York, and Vermont. What the law considers a “sore loser” varies from state to state, with most states requiring that the candidate have appeared on the primary ballot for the office in question. If they did, then they are barred from running as an independent even if they had ended or suspended their campaign for a party nomination before primary day. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s nominee in 2012, learned this lesson in Michigan when he was unable to get on the General Election ballot because his name appeared on the Republican Primary ballot earlier in the year even though he had already ended his campaign for the Republican nomination at that point.Trump would face a similar problem, and depending on how many states he actually gets on the ballot in, a true independent bid could end up being an impossibility.
On the other hand, experts tell CNN it’s still possible Trump could pull this off:
Ultimately, a candidate with the resources at Trump’s disposal would likely be able to mount a national third-party campaign, at least in terms of getting on the ballot, the experts acknowledged.
“If you’re well-financed, it’s hard, no doubt, but people have done it,” [Mark Brown, chair at Capital University Law School] said. “Ross Perot did, John Anderson did it, Gary Johnson came real close to doing it recently. I think Trump could do it.”
He continued: “Time, of course, is a problem, it is always is a problem. … As a legal matter, Trump could wait until spring to make a decision. I’m not saying that’s a good move strategically, but I don’t think he has to make up his mind right now.”
I think what this suggests is that it’s not likely Trump would launch an independent bid. He would have to be highly motivated to devote the time and energy it would require.
Having said that, this is also a good argument for Republicans not doing anything that would motivate him to take on this project.
As I said, they’re in a bind.
* * *
Pre-order Matt’s book ‘Too Dumb to Fail,’ follow him on Twitter and Facebook, and download his podcast on iTunes.
