Election Forecast: This Is Who NBC Thinks Will Win

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Phillip Stucky Political Reporter
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NBC News updated it’s running election forecast Monday, and the results aren’t looking good for Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would have enough electoral votes to clinch the general election if it were held today, according to an NBC tracking forecast. The news site gave Clinton 288 electoral college votes, much more than the minimum 270 needed to win.

Trump would only earn 174 electoral votes, according to the analysis.

There are an additional 76 electoral votes NBC classified as “toss-ups.” If Trump earned all of the “toss-up” votes — a triumph that is statistically unlikely — it would still not be enough to obtain the 270 needed to win the race.

NBC changed Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Nebraska from the “toss-up” designation to “leans Democratic” Monday. NBC noted there is a strong case for designating Virginia and Colorado as “likely Democratic” due to the strong double-digit lead Clinton enjoys in both states.

NBC downgraded Florida from “leans Democratic” to a “toss-up” based on Clinton’s lowered standing in recent polling across the state.

Georgia also made a huge shift — one that statistics site 538 called in July — from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

Two other competing forecast sources, 538 and the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, disagree with NBC’s numbers, if only slightly.

538 gives Clinton a 78.3 percent chance of winning if the election were held today. The key difference between NBC’s projection and 538’s is Arizona. 538 classifies the state as a “toss-up,” while NBC still classifies it as “leans Republican.” While Florida is still classified as “leans Democratic,” according to 538.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s Crystal Ball Director Larry Sabato and team predict Clinton will win 347 electoral college votes. Sabato grants Nevada, Ohio, and Florida to the Democratic nominee. The Crystal Ball awards both Arizona and Georgia to the Republicans.

Trump earned 191 electoral college votes, according to the UVA prediction.

Florida’s different classifications are important. 538 projects Florida will be the most important state in the election, with 16 percent chance of playing a crucial role in the general election in November.

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