DEAD HEAT: Trump And Clinton Are Tied In Arizona, New Poll Finds
A poll of likely Arizona voters released on Monday shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a statistical tie in the state, a traditional Republican stronghold.
Support for both Clinton and Trump is at 42 percent, according to the poll which was conducted from September 28 to September 30.
Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson places a distant third in Arizona in the poll with 5 percent.
Green Party candidate Jill Stein comes in fourth place with a negligible one percent.
After well over a year of essentially constant news about the 2016 election, 9 percent of Arizona’s voters say they have still managed to remain undecided.
The statistical tie is — obviously — within the poll’s margin of error of 3.66 percent.
The collection of percentages — 42, 42, 5, 1 and 9 — doesn’t quite add up to 100 because the numbers are rounded.
OH Predictive Insights, a subsidiary of Phoenix-based Owens Harkey Advertising, conducted the poll.
“Given the excitement of this election season, voters are paying close attention to the presidential contest,” Mike Noble, managing partner of OH Predictive Insights chief pollster Mike Noble said in a statement sent to The Daily Caller. “Voters in Arizona are no exception, with approximately 81 percent of likely Arizona voters tuning in to the first presidential debate.”
The poll is based on a combination of automated phone calls and live calls to 718 likely Republican, Democrat, independent and undeclared voters. A little under a quarter of the calls were mobile phone calls. The remainder — 78 percent — were landline calls.
The poll was “weighted to reflect likely general election turnout,” OH Predictive Insights notes.
The new poll offers a faint glimmer of hope for Trump.
An OH Predictive Insights poll from late August showed Clinton leading Trump by one point. (RELATED: New Poll: Clinton Leads Trump By Razor-Thin Margin In Traditionally Republican Arizona)
Noble, the OH Predictive Insights pollster, suggested that “Hillary Clinton’s Democratic vote is more consolidated compared to Donald Trump’s Republican vote” when analyzing the previous August poll.
On the website FiveThirthyEight, celebrity pollster Nate Silver gives OH Predictive Insights a C+ rating.
Voters in Arizona have chosen the GOP candidate four consecutive times and in nine out of the last 10 elections. The one time Arizona voters chose a Democrat was in 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state on his way to a second term.
Arizona will provide 11 electoral votes to the presidential candidate who received the most vote in the state on Tuesday, Nov. 8.