Republican nominee Donald Trump has a much greater chance of beating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a Tuesday analysis published by 538’s Nate Silver.
Statistics site 538 updated Trump’s chances of winning the electoral college in November to 27.5 percent. One week before the FBI announced it was re-opening its inquiry into Clinton’s private email server, Trump had a 15 percent chance of winning the White House Oct. 18.
Silver estimates that there is a 10 percent chance that Trump will win the electoral college, but will lose the popular vote, since Clinton is falling short of the strong numbers President Barack Obama earned in key battleground states in 2008 and in 2012.
Clinton is tracking close to Obama’s numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania, despite lagging early voting numbers with young and black supporters. Clinton can’t get close to Obama’s numbers in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Nevada.
Clinton is able to make up for those numbers somewhat by outperforming Obama’s numbers in Virginia and North Carolina, but those states are less important than others in which she is performing poorly.
The latest iteration of the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll was the first poll in months to show Trump winning in a national poll. Silver credits Clinton’s longstanding success to her ability to draw some Romney voters in traditionally red states like Utah, Texas, and Georgia.
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