Political statistician Nate Silver predicts the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate, according to a Monday update of the Senate election forecast on 538.
Silver calls the race in favor of Republican Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Marco Rubio of Florida, Richard Burr of North Carolina, and Roy Blunt of Missouri.
Other races that are close but still lean Democrat are Nevada’s Senate race, between Rep. Joe Heck and Democrat Catherine Masto. The two are locked in a battle to replace Sen. Harry Reid, but Masto narrowly edges out Heck, earning a 53.4 percent chance of winning the race. It should be noted that the odds are slowly turning in favor of the Republican.
Pennsylvania’s race is also close, but Democratic challenger Katie McGinty is currently favored with a 62 percent chance of winning the race against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
Sen. Mark Kirk of Illinois has a slim path to victory, according 538. Kirk only has a 3.4 percent chance of winning, compared to Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth’s 96.6 percent chance of winning the state.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte is currently in the closest Senate race of the 2016 electoral season. She currently leads in the odds, earning a 52.2 percent chance of winning the election Tuesday, but Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan follows closely behind at a 47.8 percent chance.
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