A majority of strong Trump supporters do not believe Democrats could take over the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, but that belief could be problematic if they want to avoid a blue wave, according to a poll released Tuesday.
About 50 percent of Republican voters think it’s unlikely Democrats will win back the House, and 57 percent of voters who identified as strong supporters of President Donald Trump believe Democrats don’t even have a shot. Thirty-seven percent did, though, according to the poll obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek Tuesday. The poll was conducted for the Republican National Committee (RNC) between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2 by Public Opinion Strategies.
“While a significant part of that lack of intensity is undoubtedly due to these voters’ sentiments toward the President, it may also be partly because they don’t believe there is anything at stake in this election,” the authors of the poll wrote, Bloomberg reported. “Put simply, they don’t believe that Democrats will win the House (Why should they believe the same prognosticators who told them that Hillary was going to be elected President?) [.]”
Forty percent of voters felt the country was going in the “right direction.” The majority of black voters and Hispanic voters said they were “satisfied with the economy,” according to Bloomberg.
The U.S. economy saw an increase of nonfarm jobs — positions outside of farm work, nonprofits or unincorporated private household employment — by 201,000 for August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates also remained stable at 3.9 percent. (RELATED: US Economy Adds 201,000 Jobs In August, Outpaces Expectations)
Trump has also pushed against the blue wave.
“Their blue wave is really sputtering pretty badly,” Trump said at a rally in Fargo, North Dakota, The Daily Caller News Foundation reported. “The red wave is happening — just look what happened last night.”
“Those voters who ‘somewhat approve’ of Trump and those who support the President’s policies but not his leadership style are the ones posing a challenge to the party,” making up about a quarter of the electorate, according to the poll.
Forty-four percent of voters disapproved of the president and were open to voting for Democratic candidates for the midterms, according to the poll.
They also favored student loan reform, making Medicare and Social Security better and increased funding toward mental health services for veterans rather than Trump’s focus on border security and tax cuts, according to Bloomberg.
It was “extremely likely” or “likely” that Democrats would take over the House in November for 71 percent of overall voters, however.
The nationwide poll surveyed 800 registered voters with an oversample of 200 seniors. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points with 480 interviews conducted over landline and 320 respondents answering over cell phone.
Public Opinion Strategies is a research firm that focuses on “political, public affairs, public policy and corporate positioning research,” according to its website.
The RNC and Public Opinion Strategies did not immediately respond to The Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
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