MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” co-host Mika Brzezinski was beside herself Tuesday morning after NBC’s Steve Kornacki broke down a new poll showing former President Donald Trump making significant gains among evangelicals.
The Iowa Caucus will take place Jan. 15, with Trump still leading the Republican field.
“So with less than a week to go until the Iowa caucuses, new polling shows former President Trump making larger inroads with two key groups when compared to 2016: evangelicals and first-time caucus-goers,” Brzezinski said, shaking her head in apparent disbelief. “NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki is with us from the big board. Steve, what are the latest polls showing us about Trump’s gain with these two groups? I’m just — I have no words for evangelical voters at this point.”
“It is a dramatic … turnaround since 2016 in terms of where Trump stands with evangelicals,” Kornacki responded. “We’ve seen this nationally, and I think it’s the biggest story in Iowa. Just as a refresher, eight years ago … Trump lost Iowa. He came in second to Ted Cruz. He barely held off Marco Rubio for third place,” Kornacki explained. “Remember there were a couple days there after Iowa in 2016 [when] people were saying, ‘Hey maybe this Trump thing will all fall apart.’ He ended up winning New Hampshire, turning it around.”
“But the reason — the overriding reason that Donald Trump lost Iowa in 2016 — is right here,” he continued, gesturing to a screen that showed Cruz beating Trump by 12 points among evangelicals. “This is the exit poll from the caucuses. This is the evangelical vote. About 64 percent of the Iowa Republican electorate in 2016 was evangelical.”
“And look, Ted Cruz won it. He won it by double digits, 34 to 22 over Donald Trump. So Cruz with a double-digit win among evangelicals, there was a lot of resistance, a lot of skepticism. Trump had some support with evangelicals, but Cruz was the candidate of the evangelicals in Iowa in 2016,” Kornacki added.
He went on to explain Trump’s current standing with Iowa evangelicals as the 2024 caucus approaches.
“Our most recent NBC News/Des Moines Register poll out of Iowa — this is about a month old, but this is what we’ve been seeing all year — among evangelicals, look at the turnaround,” he said as the screen changed to show Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 51 to 26 among evangelicals. (RELATED: CNN Data Reporter: Trump Has ‘Strongest’ Poll Numbers In ‘History’ Of Iowa Caucus Polls)
Kornacki then explained that Trump has also improved on his 2016 performance among first time caucus goers. Trump won that demographic in 2016 race, garnering 30 percent of the first-time vote while Cruz took 23 percent, Kornacki said. Trump is currently polling at 63 percent among first-time Iowa caucus goers, leading DeSantis by more than 50 points, Kornacki noted.
In a Morning Consult poll conducted between Dec. 1, 2023, and Jan. 7, 2024, that surveyed 353 potential Republican caucus goers, 58 percent said they would support Trump. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley came in second place with DeSantis in third.
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